Escalating Tensions: Medvedev’s worrying warning to the United States

In November 2024, former Russian President and relentless anti-Western foreign policy hawk Dmitry Medvedev issued a worrying warning to the United States over reports suggesting U.S. officals had discussed transferring nuclear weapons to Ukraine.

Medvedev, who currently serves as Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, criticized discussions that reportedly happened behind closed between senior U.S. government officals about the possibility of transferring nuclear weapons to Ukraine in a post on his Telegram channel. 

"American politicians and journalists are seriously discussing the consequences of transferring nuclear weapons to Kyiv,” Medvedev began, according to a translation of his comments from Newsweek. 

“It seems that my sad joke about crazy, senile Biden, who decided to leave this life gracefully, taking a significant part of humanity with him, is turning into a frightening reality,” Medvedev added. 

The former Russian President went on to say that giving nuclear weapons to a country at war with the largest nuclear power in the world was an idea so absurd it raised “suspicions about a paranoid psychosis” of Joe Biden. 

Regardless of the idea’s absurdity, Medvedev said he felt compelled to respond to the discussions happening among U.S. journalists and politicians, and he outlined two reasons why transferring nuclear weapons to Ukraine would be a bad idea for Washington. 

First, Medvedev noted that just the threat of transferring nuclear weapons to Ukraine could be considered a preparation for a nuclear conflict with Russia. 

Second, the former Russian President pointed out that actually transferring nuclear weapons to Kyiv would "be equated to an act of attack on our country under article 19 of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence."

"The consequences are obvious," Medvedev continued. The consequences might have been obvious to anyone who understands Russian nuclear doctrine and Moscow's first-strike policy, which allows for a first strike in a narrow set of circumstances. 

According to Newsweek, Article 19 of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence allows Russia to use a nuclear weapon in the event that Moscow receives reliable data about the impending launch of ballistic missiles against Russia. 

What Medvedev was trying to get across in his Telegram post was likely that talk about the possibility of transferring nuclear weapons to Ukraine could be enough for Russia to justify the use of nuclear weapons. 

Moreover, if the United States were to transfer nuclear weapons to Ukraine, it would be a move that was more than needed to justify the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. However, this isn’t a scenario that anyone really needs to worry about. 

On November 21st, the New York Times reported that several U.S. officials had suggested that Biden could return the nuclear weapons taken from Ukraine after the fall of the Soviet Union as part of the Budapest Memorandum. 

On November 30th, a correction to the news story was added, noting that officials only suggested Washington could allow Ukraine to reestablish the nuclear arsenal that it gave up following the Budapest Memorandum. The correction added that no officials suggested Biden should return those weapons to Ukraine. 

Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov responded poorly to the initial reporting, telling reporters that the suggestions were “absolutely irresponsible arguments of people who have a poor understanding of reality” according to Reuters. 

Peskov added that the officials who made the suggestions did not “feel a shred of responsibility when making such statements” and pointed out that the “statements are anonymous."

Newsweek contacted the White House for a response to Medvedev’s response to the claims made by the New York Times and it noted that Washington was “not planning to equip Ukraine with nuclear weapons."

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