Will rekindling relations with the US be good for Argentina?

President of Argentina since December 2023, Javier Milei has been effusive in his admiration for Donald Trump, proposing a return to the close alliances that defined Argentine foreign policy in the 1990s during the mandate of Carlos Menem. With the intention of reviving the so-called "carnal relations," Milei sees this alliance as the core of his international policy.

During the Carlos Menem administration, the country's foreign policy was characterized by a pronounced alignment with the United States, which was referred to as "carnal relations." This concept, introduced by Guido Di Tella, the foreign minister at the time, represented a pragmatic stance focused on economic and strategic interests, which significantly reconfigured bilateral relations during the 1990s, according to France24.

Milei has praised Carlos Menem as "the best president of the last 40 years." After the Cold War, Carlos Menem repositioned Argentina on the global stage through a strategic alignment with the United States, seeking to attract investment and political and economic support from organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank.

On multiple occasions, Milei has reiterated his admiration for Trump, whom he considers a political role model. Meanwhile, Trump has publicly praised Milei's rule in Argentina, calling him a "MAGA president" (Make Argentina Great Again), indicating he is in sync with the values and strategies of his own MAGA movement, according to BBC News.

Following Trump's victory, Milei became the first foreign leader to attend the America First Institute's exclusive gala at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, sealing their political affinity. The connection between the two became even more pronounced in Buenos Aires in December, at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), which seeks to expand a global network of right-wing politicians and activists, according to the New York Times.

Lara Trump, the president-elect's daughter-in-law, praised Javier Milei's determination to drastically reduce public spending during a speech. She also said that, with the Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, this approach will be replicated in the US.

Milei has announced his intention to align Argentina with the United States, Israel and other nations he identifies as part of the "free world." His openly anti-communist approach marks a shift in the country's foreign policy and seeks to distance itself from the leftist governments that currently dominate in Latin America.

Milei's strategy of strengthening ties with the United States could open the door to more favorable access to financing from the IMF and other international organizations. However, this alignment raises concerns about the possible loss of Argentinian sovereignty and the risk of growing economic dependence.

Javier Milei's rise as a key figure among Donald Trump's allies reflects a significant ideological shift on the right. While Trump, in his 2015 campaign, rejected cuts to social programs such as Medicare and Medicaid, leaders such as Viktor Orbán (pictured) became an example to those on the right interested in using the power of the State to reshape culture and consolidate nationalist agendas, according to The New York Times.

Milei's stance, however, is particularly libertarian, except on issues such as abortion, defending the legalization of drugs, organ trade and marriage outside state regulation.

The appointment of Elon Musk (pictured) as head of the Government Efficiency Department, alongside Vivek Ramaswamy, has generated enthusiasm in Javier Milei's administration. According to the Casa Rosada, Musk's initiative was inspired by Milei. The president-elect stressed that both he and Milei will "pave the way" to dismantle bureaucracy, reduce regulations, cut expenses and restructure federal agencies, consolidating an austere and efficient approach to government, according to France24.

However, experts have pointed out that Javier Milei's approach may not be sustainable or beneficial for Argentina in the long term. There are doubts about whether his alignment with the United States will really improve bilateral relations or whether, on the contrary, it will end up being a mere formality with no tangible impact on national interests.

Analysts warn that the relationship between Javier Milei and Donald Trump could isolate Argentina in multilateral settings. This scenario is due to the extreme positions that both leaders have adopted, which could potentially complicate collaborations with other countries and international entities.

Although they share a disruptive approach towards the establishment, Trump and Milei actually have opposing economic visions. According to analyst Gonzalo Sarasqueta, interviewed by France24, Trump is going for a protectionist nationalism with high tariffs, even on Argentinian products, while Milei's thing is economic openness and free trade.

Sarasqueta warns of the "serious error" of Argentina's unconditional alignment with the US. While Trump closes the US off to global trade, Milei imagines a more integrated world. These different approaches could generate tensions.

Global conditions have changed significantly since the 1990s, raising questions about the viability of "carnal relations" between the two countries in the current international environment.

Unlike the governments of Menem and Macri, Javier Milei has opted for a more radical and polarizing approach in his foreign policy. This stance could generate significant repercussions in Argentina's traditional trade relations, threatening its position in key markets and altering its interaction with traditional allies.

Since taking office in December 2023, Javier Milei has made 15 international trips, mainly personal. Although he moves with ease abroad and receives support, from figures such as Trump, political scientist Sebastián Halperín warns that this recognition does not guarantee timely international investment to boost Argentina's growth, according to France24.

Milei's skeptical stance on climate change, mirroring that of Donald Trump, has generated criticism within Argentina and internationally. His position has raised concerns about the country's commitment to environmental and global sustainability policies.

Despite the external support he has received, Javier Milei faces significant internal challenges, especially regarding his economic and social agenda. The adjustment and austerity policies he has implemented could generate popular discontent and trigger tensions within the country, testing the stability of his government.

With Donald Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, Javier Milei is expected to further intensify his efforts to consolidate relations with the United States. This shift could significantly redefine Argentina's foreign policy, marking a change in its international alliances and its positioning on the global stage.

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