America warns its allies to watch for signs of Russian nuclear use

On April 18th, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman warned America's NATO allies that they needed to keep a watchful eye on Russia for signs of nuclear weapons use. 

"We have all watched and worried that Vladimir Putin would use what he considers a non-strategic tactical nuclear weapon or use some demonstration effect to escalate, but in a managed risk escalation,” Deputy Secretary Sherman said. 

"It is very critical to remain watchful of this,” Sherman added, echoing the thoughts of many policymakers following Putin’s decision to deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus. 

Sherman's comments were made during NATO’s 18th Annual Conference on Weapons of Mass Destruction Arms Control, Disarmament, and Non-Proliferation, and they brought to light a growing concern among Western leaders: nuclear war. 

Throughout most of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin and other high-ranking officials in the Russian government have warned that Western escalation could lead to an unavoidable nuclear exchange. 

“Nuclear powers do not lose major conflicts on which their fate depends,” former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev wrote in a January 2023 Telegram post. 

In February 2023, Putin suspended the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty Russia had with the United States and threatened the resumption of nuclear testing. 

“They want to inflict a strategic defeat on us and sneak into our nuclear facilities. In light of this, I am compelled to announce today that Russia is suspending its participation in the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty,” Putin said during a 45-minute speech at the time. 

While Putin’s decision to leave the New START treaty was widely regarded as a political chess move meant to scare Western leaders into scaling back their support for Ukraine, it only worked to awaken their fears that Russia could eventually use a nuclear weapon. 

“Russia seeks to undermine the foundations of the international rules-based system,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at the opening of the organization's April 17th arms control conference. 

Stoltenberg added that despite Russia’s decision to remove itself from the New Start Treaty and actively proliferate nuclear arms with its deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, the West would not be deterred in its support of Ukraine. 

“These are irresponsible acts,” Stoltenberg said. “Designed to deter NATO Allies from supporting Ukraine. But they will not work. Because while we take Russia’s threats seriously, we will not be intimidated.”

In reality, Putin’s moves may have just been political saber-rattling. A CNN report noted that Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the decision to leave the New START Treaty was reversible if Washington showed the political will to de-escalate tensions. 

Moreover, Putin said in his announcement on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus that Moscow would not transfer their control to Minsk according to reporting from Politico’s Jordan Haynes. 

“We agreed with Lukashenko that we would place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus without violating the nonproliferation regime,” Putin was quoted as saying by The Russian News Agency (TASS). “The United States has been doing this for decades.”

Yes, you should. Even if everything happening looks like political blustering, it only takes one incident or poor choice to set off a global nuclear war—and with both sides digging into their positions—the world very much could be slowly inching its way to nuclear war.