Are Russia's ground forces actually larger now than before the war?

Russia has allegedly lost tens of thousands of soldiers during its invasion of Ukraine but that hasn’t stopped the country’s army from becoming bigger than it was before the war. 

In fact, parts of the Russian military are larger than they were before the war according to the Commander of the United States European Command General Christopher Cavoli. 

General Cavoli is also NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and he recently spoke in front of the House Armed Services Committee on the state of Russian power. 

"Much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict," General Cavoli testified to the committee as he explained the strategic problems facing Europe. 

Russia is still a formidable power and retains much of its airpower and naval power, weapons systems that can still be brought to bear in any future conflict with the West. 

"The air force has lost very little. They've lost 80 planes — they have another 1,000 fighters and fighter-bombers. The Navy has lost one ship," General Cavoli explained. 

More worrying, however, were comments the general made about the size of Russia’s ground forces, which he claimed were larger now than prior to the beginning of the war. 

"The Russian ground force has been degenerated somewhat by this conflict, although it is bigger today than it was at the beginning of the conflict," Cavoli testified in the House. 

In 2021, the Institute for Strategic Studies noted in an annual report that Russia’s total armed forces strength sat at 1.154 million active personnel according to Wikipedia. 

This number is in line with Russia’s official projections and makes sense based on recent changes made to the size of the Russian military according to a Reuters report. 

General Cavoli’s comments make sense if you take into consideration the massive push for more troops that President Vladimir Putin ordered during the summer of 2022. 

In August, Putin signed a decree ordering the increase in the size of the Russian military from 1.90 million soldiers to 2.04 million according to a report from The Guardian. 

Included in the decree was the addition of 137,000 combat personnel which pushed the total number of available men for combat roles to 1.15 million, but that didn’t last long. 

In December 2022, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed raising the size of the country’s armed forces to 1.5 million in order to “guarantee the solving of problems related to Russia's military security" according to a Reuters translation.

This measure was formally adopted in January when the original increase decree was set to be met and The Hill noted the increase would be done from 2023 to 2026. 

“Only by strengthening the key structural components of the Armed Forces is it possible to guarantee the military security of the state and protect new entities and critical facilities of the Russian Federation,” Shoigu said according to a Reuters translation.

Figuring out how far Russia has come in meeting its new combat personnel numbers is difficult to know, but the country does seem to be making progress despite its alleged battlefield losses and Cavoli cautioned the U.S. should “stay the course” in its support.

On May 1st, White House National Security Advisor John Kirby stated according to Newsweek that roughly 100,000 had been lost in four months of fighting, including 20,000 deaths. If true, one must wonder if General Cavoli’s statement is accurate.