Are we about to see another Russian collapse?

How long will it take before the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine finally collapse? This is a question many observers have thought about as Moscow’s military has floundered. 

The brutal conflict has been raging for the better part of a year and a half and it looks as if both sides have dug in for the long haul as neither seems willing to negotiate a peace agreement. 

There have been several instances through this time in which Russian forces looked as if they were on the brink of collapse because of stunning retreats and failed offensives. 

Vladimir Putin has had to endure two major front withdrawals and a coup attempt, but in each of those situations, his frontline soldiers still held strong against Ukranian forces.

However, Russia’s luck might have run out according to a report from June by the Royal United Services Institute which said Putin’s military forces were susceptible to collapse. 

While the report may be more than two and a months years old now, many of its key insights are still applicable as the Ukrainian summer counter-offensive makes its first big progress. 

The report noted poor training and the low discipline of frontline troops made it possible for Moscow’s defensive actions to become “uncoordinated and susceptible to collapse. 

This is certainly something that appears to be unfolding on the Orikhiv axis as Ukrainian troops captured Robotyne and pushed through the first line of major Russian defenses. 

“We are now between the first and second defensive lines,” Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy explained to the Observer according to The Guardian. 

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“In the center of the offensive, we are now completing the destruction of enemy units that provide cover for the retreat of Russian troops behind their second defensive line,” Tarnavskiy continued. 

One of the major goals of the offensive that could force a Russian collapse would be to get Moscow to commit its reserves to the fight against Ukraine's advances according to the Royal United Services Institute report. 

The report noted that once troops from the third defensive line were pulled up to assist the first and second lines, it would allow Ukrainian forces to identify major weak points. 

This situation seems to be unfolding now based on comments from Tarnavskiy noting that Russia is pulling up its reserves as quickly as possible to stem Ukraine’s assault. 

“The enemy is pulling up reserves, not only from Ukraine but also from Russia. But sooner or later, the Russians will run out of all the best soldiers,” Tarnavskiy said. 

“This will give us an impetus to attack more and faster,” Tarnavskiy added. “Everything is ahead of us.” Unfortunately for Ukraine, militaries don’t just collapse after one successful attack. 

The Royal United Services Institute report noted that the uncertain variable in all of this is the morale of Russian troops facing off against Ukrainian forces across the frontline. 

Russians were fighting from prepared positions and the command-and-control structure it had was intact at the time the report was published. But it added that if Ukraine could force troops to reposition, then it could likely set the condition for a possible collapse. 

“Bringing about such conditions would require some significant actions by the Ukrainians to get the Russians moving, but it is possible under such conditions for the strength of the defense to crumble rapidly,” the report noted. 

Significant actions have been taken by Ukraine, and if Brigadier General Tarnavskiy is to be believed, then Kyiv could be poised to see a major Russian collapse in Zaporizhzhia. 

However, it’s always important to remember that anything is possible in warfare and the words of Ukrainian sources should be taken with a grain of salt, even if most of the world is hoping Ukraine will push Russia out of the southern portion of the country. 

“In my opinion, the Russians believed the Ukrainians would not get through this line of defense. They had been preparing for over one year. They did everything to make sure that this area was prepared well,” Tarnavskiy explained.

Tarnavskiy said Russia put 60% of its resources into preparing its first line of defense, so maybe the alleged breakthrough will prove to be enough of an issue to factor in the training and discipline problems that could lead to a snowballing Russian collapse.