Badly trained troops can’t push Ukraine out of key battleground foothold

While the world has been focused on the fighting unfolding around the embattled city of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, there has been a life-and-death struggle quietly transpiring on the banks of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine. 

In November 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to capture a foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, an area formerly controlled by Russia, and have been working to expand their important foothold ever since. 

However, Russia has been trying to dislodge Ukraine from the territory it’s captured but hasn’t been able to do so despite its advantages. For example, a soldier revealed to the Financial Times Russia had a four or five-man advantage.

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Anton Holoborodko, CC BY-SA 3.0

While Ukrainian soldiers are suffering across the Dnipro, they have been able to hold on to their foothold in the face of heavy counterattacks mainly because of the quality of the troops that face according to the UK Ministry of Defense.

In its January 20th update on the war in Ukraine, defense ministry analysts reported that the Russian Dnipro Grouping of Forces had been unsuccessful in their attempts to push Ukraine from its foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro. 

Ministry analysts specifically noted that Russia couldn’t achieve its goal despite having a “significant advantage in the balance of forces on this” and added that this was likely due to the quality of the troops that were sent to the region.

“It is highly likely that the poor training and coordination of Russian forces in the area is limiting their offensive capabilities,” the report read. However, there are some who think the Ukrainian foray across the Dnipro will ultimately fail.  

Things aren’t looking good for the Ukrainian troops fighting Russia on the other side of the river according to the soldier named who spoke with the Financial Times about the situation on the eastern bank of the Dnipro. 

Vanya is part of a reconnaissance unit in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and explained that casualties were high in the region, though he declined to provide any details citing military secrets. The issue is a logistical one.  

Financial Times journalist Christopher Miller explained that because Ukrainian soldiers had to cross the river in small boats in order to get to the battlefield, they needed to stay nimble and this restricted what they took. 

There aren’t a lot of heavier weapons being transported across the river to support the troops who are holding out against Russian troops and that means they’re fighting with a major material disadvantage against a larger enemy. 

“Everything we take is what we can carry ourselves,” Vanya says. “There are at most some types of grenade launchers. In a very rare case, I saw one heavy machine gun brought across.” This makes it difficult to reach their goal. 

According to Miller, the Ukrainians were hoping to create a foothold large enough from which they would have been able to launch larger attacks into occupied Kherson. But Vanya doesn’t believe this is possible anymore.

“The fact is that the Marine Corps was unable to maintain the pace of the offensive and for sure lost the initiative a long time ago,” Vanya said. Losing the initiation isn’t a good thing but it also doesn’t mean Vanya’s assessment is right. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, CC BY-SA 2.0

In war, there are few who can see the whole picture as it's unfolding, and while we don’t truly know what’s unfolding across the Dnipro River, it seems that Moscow has not been able to dislodge their enemy due to the quality of their troops. 

Newsweek reported that the first mention of a Dnipro Group of Forces was made by Russia in April 2014 and noted that the grouping of forces was likely built from the remnants of the original soldiers who retreated from Kherson in 2022. 

In December 2023, the Russian 104th Air Assault Division was sent to southern Ukraine on a mission to save the region but the UK Ministry of Defense noted on December 14th it “suffered exceptionally heavy losses and failed to achieve its objective.” 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Mil.ru, CC BY 4.0

As of January 22nd, the Ukrainian Armed Forces still had a foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnipro but the UK Ministry of Defense noted in its January 21st war update that pushing the Ukrianians out was a “priority operation objective.”