Can Ukraine survive if Russia goes after its energy grid this winter?

One of the most worrying strategies during the first year of Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the Kremlin’s attempt to break the will of the Ukrainian people via the destruction of the country’s electrical network at the height of winter. 

Weaponizing winter became a hallmark of the Russian campaign to finish Ukraine in the first year of combat, and the attacks proved to be extremely effective. October 2022 saw the Kremlin step up air attacks that did serious damage. 

On October 18th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in a tweet that Russia had knocked out thirty percent of the country’s power stations in assaults that started on October 10th. This left thousands without power or heat. 

Massive blackouts followed the attack on Ukraine's power grid but global backlash from the attack didn’t stop Russian military leadership from continuing to target the country’s electrical power grid and attacks went on well into spring. 

The first wave of missiles left power workers stunned according to the New York Times, which profiled Russia’s war on Ukraine’s energy grid in April. “These were some of the most difficult days,” Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko said. 

In March 2023, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin revealed the severity of the situation and said that since the first attacks in October 2022, Russia had launched 225 missiles and knocked out 112 different pieces of critical infrastructure. 

“The winter of 2022–2023 in Ukraine was the most difficult one ever,” wrote the Kennan Institute’s Andrian Prokip. “It’s probably correct to say that in recent decades, no other country has faced the sort of challenges the Ukrainian energy sector did last winter.” 

One Ukrainian Chief Engineer at a critical substation explained that the first attacks had everyone at the station worried. But after a few weeks, they learned how to protect their systems and themselves from the attacks. 

“The next attacks were scary, but we already knew what to do,” explained Ihor, the chief engineer. “We felt much more confident.” It is this knowledge and confidence authorities in Kyiv will need as winter approaches again. 

On October 1st, The Guardian reported that more attacks on Ukraine’s critical electrical infrastructure are expected after Russian military leadership spent the summer targeting Ukraine’s grain export facilities. But this time energy workers are ready.  

“In 2022 we had to improvise. Now we are better prepared,” a power distribution expert named Danyliuk with 25 years of experience told The Guardian. Danyliuk revealed one of Ukraine's new electrical substations designed to protect against a strike. 

The substation was located outside the city of Hostomel, close to a pine forest, and had its cables buried underground. The building itself was explained as having thick walls of concrete that resembled those of a bomb shelter. 

The building incorporated shrapnel-proof roofing. Danyliuk noted the substation would not be able to take a direct hit. “Of course, if they drop a bomb precisely on the roof it will trash everything. But generally, we can fix damage in two days.”

Serhii Buriak is the head of the Hostomel region’s electrical grid and he explained that experience would help this winter. “In the past, an attack would knock out power for an entire area. Now we can switch quickly from one electricity source to another.”

How Ukraine’s electrical system will fare if Russia’ does return to attack it this winter isn’t known, but Energy Minister Galushchenko told The Economist that the country’s system is more vulnerable than it was during the winter of 2022-2023. 

However, Ukraine now has experience with large-scale attacks, and Andrian Prokip of the Kennan Institute believes Ukraine will likely face power cutoffs again, but added that the “apocalyptic scenario with total blackouts is very unlikely.”

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons: By vityok (talk) 11:23, 25 November 2022 (UTC) - https://go.nasa.gov/3EDKK5m, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=125920954