China is creating a major drone shortage in Russia

Chinese export restrictions on drones and their components have led to several supply problems and shortages and could pose a major challenge to Vladimir Putin’s war effort in Ukraine according to Russian state media. 

New regulations announced by Beijing in the summer came into effect at the beginning of September and have "seriously complicated drone deliveries to Russia and led to a shortage of a number of components,” Kommersant reported according to Newsweek. 

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Kommersant is a Russian daily newspaper with links to the Kremlin and it reported that key components like thermal imagers are in short supply while large manufacturers are already saying they are out of stock or doubled their prices due to the export changes. 

Some manufacturers were able to create large reserves according to Kommersant but the issues are likely to get worse since the Chinese government has made it very hard for the country’s drone suppliers to obtain a permit to export their drone products. 

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Registrations for licenses can take upwards of one year and supplies need to prove that their drones will not be used for military purposes. Some suppliers are trying to create other export routes via third-party countries but that solution is also complicated.

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For example, The Moscow Times noted some companies in Kazakhstan have continued supplying the Kremlin with popular drone models China had stopped sending to Russia, but now those in Kazakhstan were looking to end the shipments due to tighter controls.

In August, Chinese officials said Beijing would be introducing export controls on some of its drones and their key components, a measure that would affect parts related to some engines, lasers, and communication equipment according to reporting from Newsweek. 

The restrictions were designed to impact drones used for military purposes and that had a flight time of thirty minutes, something that would undoubtedly have a major impact on the war in Ukraine since China is one of the world’s top drone producers. 

Chinese hobbyist drones like the models from manufacturer DJI have proved to be very critical on the battlefields of occupied Ukraine for both sides in the conflict according to unmanned aerial vehicle expert Faine Greenwood. 

"The Ukrainians, and the Russians too, have figured out ways to modify these devices they've purchased online to make more and more creative ways to drop explosives from these small consumer drones," Greenwood told NPR in March 2023. 

Greenwood had documented over one thousand cases over the previous year and she found that DJI’s drones were the most popular models for reconnaissance and attack missions, even though the company halted sales to Ukraine and Russia in April 2022. 

In an email statement to NPR, DJI noted that it had a “longstanding prohibition” against the sale of its drones to either Ukraine or Russia since their products were not intended to be used for military activities. 

"We have seen reports that show how our products are being transported to Russia and Ukraine from other countries, where they can be bought off-the-shelf," DJI wrote, adding that how their drones were used once they were purchased was out of their control. 

Interestingly, Samuel Bendett from the American-based Center for Naval Analysis noted that small commercial drones like those produced by DJI were not included in the export regulations from China and said it could affect the import of heavier agricultural drones. 

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"The lack of certain components may have a great effect, but there are many alternate supply routes, legal and gray schemes used by Russians to procure what they need," Bendett explained to Newsweek. 

"The real impact of this ban on the Russian market mostly boils down to the jump in prices for existing and available Chinese drones in and components already in Russia," Bendett said. How this will play out has yet to be seen but it doesn’t look good for Moscow.