Could Canada’s looming federal strike finally spell the end of Justin Trudeau?

Justin Trudeau could be facing one the biggest government strikes in Canadian history if the country’s largest federal employee union votes for work stoppages this month if the Prime Minister doesn't work to meet their proposed wage increases. 

The Public Alliance of Canada and other federal union groups represent hundreds of thousands of public employees and their members are set to vote by April 11th on whether or not they will strike or accept the modest wage increases offered by Trudeau. 

Federal employees were seeking successive wage increases over the next few years to help alleviate the pressures coming from inflation but were only offered a 2.06% wage increase per year, which one union said was completely out of touch with inflation rates. 

According to a press release from Public Alliance Canada, the federal government refused to compromise during mediation in September and now union leaders say their members are poised to vote for a strike over the wage dispute and other key issues. 

“Everyone deserves fair pay and safer workplaces. Together, we’re taking a stand for workers,” said the National President of Public Alliance Canada Chris Aylward. “Wages are stalled, the cost of living is rising, and workers are being left behind.”

Photo by PCAS Union

Unfortunately for Alyward, his argument might not sit well with Canadians since the country’s rate of inflation has been rapidly decreasing after a series of interest rate hikes cooled spending and slowed down Canada’s inflation rate for the third month in a row. 

On March 3rd, Statistics Canada noted that the country’s year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) had dropped to 5.2% from January’s 5.9%, something the government organization said was the “largest deceleration in the headline CPI since April 2022.”

Federal workers are undeterred, however, and still plan to push their wage increase issue with the government. Chris Aylward said he saw a strong strike mandate emerging among the people he represented. 

“Workers are completely frustrated at being left behind. We’ve got to fight back if we want to achieve a fair and decent wage increase,” Aylward explained in a phone interview with Randy Thanthong-Knight of Bloomberg News. 

“Early indication is that the frustration is going to project into a strong strike mandate,” Alyward added, a situation Thanthong-Knight believes could prove disastrous for Canada’s Prime Minister if other unions follow suit. 

According to Thanthong-Knight, Canada’s federal government is the country’s largest employer and any strike action could upset Trudeau’s New Democratic Party parliamentary allies and threaten his minority control of the House of Commons. 

If that were the case, Trudeau would be facing a massive strike that would disrupt essential services like Canada’s Revenue Agency and interrupt services at airports and border crossings according to Bloomberg News. 

Pierre Martell is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Ottawa and he told the Ottawa Citizen that the strike by federal employees could be what finally brings down Trudeau and his Liberal government. 

“The longer the strike, the more immediate and forceful the impact is felt by the public in terms of access to services,” Martel said. “I think that that may force many people in the population to think that the government’s term is near and that there is a need for change.”

“I think a strike, simply, would be a nail in the coffin of the Liberal government,” Martell added, noting that Trudeau’s opposition would be more than happy to enter an election.

While a strike is not certain, there is a good chance Canada’s federal employees will choose the picket line in the coming days, and Elections Canada (EC) representative Matthew McKenna said his Parliamentary organization was preparing for anything,

“We have been working with the unions to ensure that a strike, should it occur, would not compromise EC’s ability to prepare for and deliver the next general election, whenever it may be called,” McKenna said.