Has Russia's big winter offensive against Ukraine failed?

Ukrainian military officals reported that on February 25th the country's armed forces had repelled more than 70 separate attacks, a situation that has left some wondering if Russia's big winter offensive has finally petered out.

"The main efforts of the enemy continue to be focused on conducting offensive operations on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Shakhtars’ke axes," wrote Ukraine's General Staf in their daily operational update.

"Last day, our defenders repelled 71 enemy attacks in the indicated directions," the report's authors added.

For months Western intelligence analysts warned about a massive Russian offensive slated for early spring. But the decision to send modern battle tanks to Ukraine may have hastened Vladimir Putin’s timeline. 

On February 1st, Ukraine’s Secretary of National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov told Sky News that a new Russian attack was on its way. 

“Russia is preparing for maximum escalation,” Danilov said during his interview. “It is gathering everything possible, doing drills and training.”

“When it comes to an offensive from different directions, as of now, I can say that we are not excluding any scenario in the next two to three weeks,” Danilov added. 

While concerned about the important fights to come, Danilov also noted that this could be a critical turning point in the war. “These will be defining months in the war.”

Ukrainian officials have long warned that Russia was preparing something in the country’s north, east, and south after the spring muddy season was over. But it looked like Putin’s timeline for the attack was pushed forward.

Information leaked by Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov during an interview with the French media in early February suggested that Russia had amassed roughly 500,000 soldiers for an assault. 

“Officially, they announced 300,000, but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our assessments it is much more,” Reznikov said.

Reznikov also said that he believed the Russians would probably strike in eastern or southern Ukraine rather than in the north as some analysts feared. 

“The big battle is coming,” a senior sergeant in Ukraine’s 56th motorized infantry brigade named Vitaly told The Guardian’s, Julian Borger in late January. 

“There is more activity in these past couple of weeks with shelling from artillery and even from tanks,” Vitaly added, “but they don’t send infantry over the line because they’re scared.”

In January Russian forces started what many believed was Putin's offensive. Wagner Group took Soledar and made minor strategic gains around Bakhmut. But as quickly as it started, the Russian offensive seemed to peter out.

Ukraine won a number of victories all along the front in February, including a major defeat of Russian forces at Vulhedar mid-month and most recently a stunning victory at Wagner forces near the village of Yahidne on February 26th.

"Russia's vaunted second offensive is a damp squib," read one headline from The Economist." But has the true Russian offensive started? Some experts are unsure.

Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy said in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El Periodico on February 24th that was clear something big was still coming.

“It is clear that Russia is going to launch a massive offensive,” Borrell said. “We know from the satellites surrounding Ukraine that it [Russia] has mobilized its strategic aviation at the airfields.”

“As soon as the weather conditions allow it, it [Russia] will continue with the offensive that it has already started," Borrell added. How well Russian forces will fair is still unknown, if it's anything like their recent battles then Ukraine may have nothing to worry about...