Lukashenko's stark forecast: A war looms if Belarus is annexed

In a recent dialogue with the Russian-language news organization Izvestia, Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko dismissed the notion of Belarus merging with the Russian Federation, cautioning that such a move could lead to severe repercussions.

The notion that Belarus could join Russia in the future and give up its independence is a political problem that’s become increasingly important since Moscow invaded Ukraine. 

Whether or not Lukashenko would allow Belarus to fall under the power of Moscow has been hotly debated, but the Belarusian leader recently said that joining Russia would be opposed by Bealrusians and result in war. 

While speaking to the Russian news outlet Izvestia, Lukashenko was asked about the problems his country was facing, and he brought up several, including joining Russia.  

Lukashenko rejected the notion that Belarus would join Russia and was clear that while Russia and Belarus had a common ancestry, Belarus needed to stay a sovereign state because any attempt to join Russia would result in war. 

“First… Nobody has authorized me to take that step. Second, any move by any politician in that direction would be quashed by the Belarusian people,” Lukashenko explained to Izvestia, according to a translation from Novaya Gazeta   

“Us joining Russia? Out of the question. It’s impossible and impractical. I’m sorry to say that would mean war,” Lukashenko continued. 

Lukashenko went on to explain that his country played an important role in establishing the Union State, which is a supranational union between Belarus and Russia designed to deepen the two countries' relationship according to Wikipedia, before Vladimir Putin took power in Russia. 

“We have more than enough specialists to build such close relations in the Union State, to create this Union State, we have set our sights on this. I was the initiator of this back in [former Russian President Boris] Yeltsin’s time,” Lukashenko said.

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By RIA Novosti Archive, Vladimir Rodionov, CC-BY-SA 3.0, CC BY-SA 3.0

“We can build such relations that will be closer and stronger than in a unitary state. And no one will be offended by anyone. We need this,” Lukashenko added, according to the Kyiv Post. 

What Lukashenko was explaining was that Belarus and Russia didn’t need to be part of a single state to gain the benefits of such a state, their relations could be stronger and it suggested the approach wouldn’t lead to the problems Lukashenko outlined previously. 

So far, Lukashnko’s closer relationship with Russia has led to a very strong partnership between the two countries and hasn’t resulted in a situation that has toppled Belarus or its government. His comments paired well with other remarks in the interview. 

While speaking about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenko outlined why it was important for politicians to think ahead when making moves. 

“Okay, let’s say Russia conquered Ukraine. What then? Every time a smart, wise politician takes a step, he should think, ‘What next?’ That’s why Putin, he often talks about this, has never had the task of conquering…” Lukashenko explained. 

“That’s why the world is like this now, it’s not the Middle Ages, when you captured a territory, pay taxes and that’s it – the world has changed, the world is different. That’s why you shouldn’t set stupid goals for yourself, and you should always think about what will happen next,” Lukashnko added. 

Novaya Gazeta reported that feathers were ruffled in Minsk back in February 2023 when an internal Russian document outlined Moscow’s plans to gradually absorb Belarus into Russia through a unification process meant to be finished by 2030. 

The document outlined moves that would end the current Union State between the two countries, which was established in 1999 at Lukashenko’s behest, and would put Minsk in a subservient position to Russian leaders in Moscow. 

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Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Post of Belarus, Public Domain