Putin admits Russia is facing serious challenges, but what are they?

President Vladimir Putin admitted in an Orthodox Easter address with Patriarch Kirill of Moscow that Russia was facing serious challenges, but just what are those challenges? 

More than one year on from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia is facing a number of mounting problems that range from the economic and political to the social and demographic.  

The impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy cannot be understated when looking at Russia’s future, even though the country's economy has proven to be rather resilient up until recently. 

Russia’s economic output suffered a 2.1% contraction in 2022 according to CNN’s Hanna Ziady. But Putin himself noted at the end of March that things were going to get a lot worse. 

“The illegitimate restrictions imposed on the Russian economy may indeed have a negative impact on it in the medium term,” Putin said in a televised statement according to The Russian News Agency (TASS) and translated by CNN. 

According to Ziady, Russian revenue plummeted by 35% in January compared to the previous year, and the country’s war-driven expenditures jumped 59% and resulted in a budget deficit of around 1,761 billion rubles at a time when the currency is suffering. 

The Russian Ruble fell to its lowest value in over a year in early April according to BBC News, prompting Russia’s central bank to relax several of the country’s capital controls. But Moscow’s economic issues pale in comparison to its political problems. 

At the international level, Western sanctions have boxed Russia into a political corner, one which has forced Putin's government to rely more heavily on China for everything from trade to political support. 

“Russia may worry about increasing reliance upon China, but it has no other good options,” said Li Xin, director of the Institute of European and Asian Studies at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law according to the Associated Press. 

Internally, Russia’s war in Ukraine and its economic crisis will certainly affect the country’s looming presidential election, but deciphering exactly what could happen is anybody's guess at this point, though we can assume it won’t be good. 

“If Moscow carries out further mobilizations, something the government is trying to avoid, it will stir up more social anxiety with unpredictable consequences,” wrote Tatiana Stanovaya of Foreign Affairs. 

“If Russia faces additional setbacks, Putin will have to deal with escalating criticism. Both situations could prompt him to cancel elections, implement elements of a military dictatorship, and purge the elites in a bid to shore up his security,” Stanovaya added. 

Alternatively, if Putin was forced to cancel elections it could also cement Russia’s elites against him, prompting new challengers and new situations that can't be foreseen at this moment. Right now, Stanovaya believes Putin will win the next election, but the war has made him weaker, which in turn makes Russia weaker. 

Less publicized but equally as disastrous for Russia is its growing demographic problem. If the UK Defense Ministry’s February Russian casualty estimates losses of 175-200,000 soldiers are correct, then Russia is likely facing a dire situation demographically. 

According to The Economist, Russia has lost two million more people than it normally would have because of the war and a mass exodus of men. Women now outnumber fighting-age men in Russia by about ten million and those who left are unlikely to return. 

“Even if Russia had no other demographic problems, losing so many in such a short time would be painful,” The Economist wrote. “As it is, the losses of war are placing more burdens on a shrinking, ailing population.”

With so many issues facing Russia, it's difficult to predict what could happen. All we can say for sure now is that most Russians are facing a bleak economic and political future, one that's likely to be made worse by their demographics and the war in Ukraine.