Russia is evacuating people in southern Ukraine, is the counteroffensive coming?

Russian forces are allegedly evacuating people from the areas around the southern city of Kherson in anticipation of the coming spring offensive according to Ukrainian officials. 

Talk of a counteroffensive has been going on for months as the country’s Western allies worked to supply Ukraine with the weapons required to push Russia out of its war gains. 

On April 8th, Ukraine's General Staff warned in its daily war update that Russian forces had begun preparations for the evacuation of the local population in southern Ukraine. 

Ukraine’s General Staff noted that Russia planned to relocate those being evacuated to Crimea, and the update specifically mentioned people in Zaporizhizhia and Kherson.

“The invaders are spreading information that the forced evacuation of the civilian population will begin at the end of April,” the General Staff’s update read.

While it's always difficult to parse the truth in statements that come from Ukrainian army sources, it does appear this early warning was true according to the New York Times. 

In early April, New York Times journalists Matthew Mopke Bigg and Yurii Shyvala wrote about the growing building up of forces on both sides in the south for the anticipated counter-offensive. 

“In recent weeks, both Russia and Ukraine have been massing their forces along the front line in the Zaporizhzhia region amid the speculation of a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive there,” Bigg and Shyvala wrote. 

The theory went that an attack in Zaporizhzhia could cut off Russian weapons and supplies to Kherson, which would result in even larger gains by Ukrainian forces. 

If true, the evacuation of civilians in the Russian-controlled Kherson area ahead of any Ukrainian attack in the south would be of the utmost importance for Moscow's occupation forces, and according to the Head of Kherson’s Regional Council, Russia has begun its evacuation.

"I have information that the evacuation starts today with an excuse of protecting civilians from the consequences of heavy fighting in the area,” Oleksndr Samoylenko on April 23rd according to reporting from the New York Times. 

Samoylenko also noted that Russian troops were “trying to steal as much as they can” while they evacuated according to the translation provided by the New York Times.  

New York Times journalists Jeffrey Gettleman and Olha Kotiuzhanska were not able to independently verify Samoylenko's comments, but they did note that Moscow has evacuated other civilian populations in similar ways prior to previous major Ukrainian counterattacks.

Samoylenko’s comments came just one day after unconfirmed reports from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that Ukrainian forces had successfully established positions at the Russian-controlled side of Kherson on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. 

“Geolocated footage published by a Russian military blogger on April 22 shows that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the Dnipro River bank,” ISW analysts wrote in their April 22 Russian Campaign Offensive Assessment. 

ISW analysts added that Ukrainian forces had taken up positions in Oleshky, and were also thought to have advanced ten miles from the town along the E97 highway. 

It is difficult to know the exact situation at present, but news of Russian evacuations coupled with Ukraine taking positions across the Dnipro River could indicate that the long-awaited Ukrainian spring counteroffensive is about to kick off.