Russia’s Defense Minister is exaggerating losses says British intelligence

Ukraine's long-awaited counter-offensive to recapture occupied territory in the country’s east has finally begun and one official in Moscow says things aren’t going well for Kyiv. 

Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu has made several concerning comments on the casualties the Ukrainian Armed Forces have suffered assaulting Russian positions. 

On June 6th, Reuters reported that Shoigu read out a prepared statement in which he detailed a thwarted Ukrainian attack that resulted in more than 3700 killed or wounded.

"In the past three days,” Shoigu explained, according to a translation from Reuters, “the Ukrainian regime launched a long-promised offensive in different sectors of the front." 

"The attempts at an offensive were thwarted, the enemy was stopped," Shoigu added. "The enemy did not achieve its goals but suffered significant and incomparable losses."

Minister Shoigu went on to explain that Russian forces had inflicted 3715 casualties on Ukraine in three days, adding Kyiv also lost 52 tanks as well as 200 armored vehicles.  

Reuters noted that it wasn’t clear how Russia calculated the losses nor how Shoigu got precise information on casualty numbers. But Britain's Ministry of Defence has a theory. 

On June 12th, Britain’s Ministry of Defense wrote in its daily war update that Shoigu was “almost certainly” making exaggerated claims about the losses Ukraine was suffering. 

The British intelligence update pointed out that between June 6th and 12th, Shoigu had been far more present and was likely trying to maintain a high public profile in Russia. 

Minister Shoigu’s goal was probably to ensure he was “presenting himself as in control of the strategic situation” according to the update, which broke from his recent public absences.

“Shoigu is likely acutely aware of the need to maintain a positive image in the face of increasingly unmasked criticism from some fellow Russians,” British intelligence wrote. 

Shoigu has been periodically absent from public view all throughout Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, at least when he’s not feuding with Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. 

On June 12th, Shoigu moved to tighten the Ministry of Defense’s control over Russia’s many paramilitary groups and demanded all organizations sign contracts with the state. 

Newsweek’s Isabel Van Brugen noted that in her reporting the move could be Shoigu’s response to the Wagner chief’s criticism of Russia’s leadership. “He has accused the minister of intentionally depriving his fighters of ammunition and support,” Brugen wrote. 

"Those orders and decrees from Shoigu,” Prigozhin wrote on Telegram according to a translation from Newsweek, “they apply to employees of the Ministry of Defense and military personnel… Wagner will not sign any contracts with Shoigu."

Britain's Ministry of Defence also noted Shoigu has asked Russia’s defense industry to “redouble its efforts” and criticized officers in the country’s Western Military District for not deploying their reserve armored vehicles to the frontlines fast enough. 

While Sergei Shoigu is considered one of Vladimir Putin’s staunchest allies, he’s coming under more and more scrutiny in Russia and that could number his days as the head of the country’s Ministry of Defense.