Sudan’s devastating reality after six months of ongoing civil war

“One of the worst humanitarian nightmares in recent history”
More than 5 million people displaced
More than half of the population in need of humanitarian aid
Several cases of infectious diseases
Air strikes and shelling in densely populated areas
How the conflict started: Sudanese army vs RSF
Military coup in 2021
RSF leader
From allies to rivals
A fight for dominance
Sudan conflict: mainly a power struggle
Head of Janjaweed: militia responsible of atrocities
Evidence of ethnic cleansing in Darfour
At least 68 villages in Darfour set on fire
Dagalo accused of overseeing massacre of protesters
Burhan also critized by human rights groups
More coups than any other African nation
The army at the center of political transitions
Two men that won’t give up power
RSF: less members but better equipped
Russia’s mercenary group Wagner sent supplies
Most of Khartoum controlled by the RSF
Concern about the conflict spreading further
The stability of a region at risk
“One of the worst humanitarian nightmares in recent history”

Six months of war between Sudan’s military and a powerful paramilitary group has killed up to 9,000 people and created “one of the worst humanitarian nightmares in recent history,” the United Nations humanitarian chief, Martin Griffiths said recently.

More than 5 million people displaced

According to the UN migration agency, more than 4.5 million people were displaced inside Sudan, while over 1.2 million others sought refuge in neighboring countries, since the conflict began in mid-April.

More than half of the population in need of humanitarian aid

The war has also led to 25 million people (more than half of the country’s population) in need of humanitarian aid, according to the UN.

Several cases of infectious diseases

Meanwhile, aid workers are struggling to access badly affected parts of Khartoum and Darfur, according to The Guardian, and cases of measles, malaria, dengue fever and cholera have been reported nationwide.

Air strikes and shelling in densely populated areas

Since the breakout of the war, the Greater Khartoum area (the cities of Khartoum, Omdurman and Khartoum North) has become a battleground, with airstrikes and shelling taking place in densely populated areas, according to AP.

How the conflict started: Sudanese army vs RSF
The origin of the conflict revolves around two rival groups: the Sudanese army and a paramilitary group known as the RSF, or Rapid Support Forces.
Military coup in 2021

Since a coup in the country in 2021 led to the fall of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir (pictured left) two years earlier, Sudan has been run by the army, with coup leader General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan as de facto ruler.

RSF leader
On the other hand, The RSF is led by General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (pictured), who has worked alongside the Sudanese army to help keep the military in power.
From allies to rivals

These two generals were allies until recently, when tensions arose during negotiations to integrate the RSF into the country’s military as part of plans to restore civilian rule.

A fight for dominance
The problem: neither wanted to be subordinate to the other under the new hierarchy, which led to “an existential fight for dominance”, sources told CNN.
Sudan conflict: mainly a power struggle
Several analysts have also agreed that the armed conflict is mainly a power struggle between the two men: Generals Dagalo and al-Burhan (pictured).
Head of Janjaweed: militia responsible of atrocities

Dagalo rose to power within the RSF beginning in the early 2000s when he was at the head of the militia known as Janjaweed: a group responsible for human right atrocities in the Darfur region.

Evidence of ethnic cleansing in Darfour

More recently, evidence of ethnic cleansing going on in Darfour, has appeared according to the UK Minister for Africa, Andrew Mitchell.

At least 68 villages in Darfour set on fire

According to the BBC, analysis of satellite and social media data reveals at least 68 villages in Darfur have been set on fire by armed militias “loosely affiliated to the RSF” since the civil war began.

Dagalo accused of overseeing massacre of protesters
Moreover, Dagalo has faced accusations of overseeing the bloody crackdown of pro democracy activists, including the massacre of 120 protesters in 2019.
Burhan also critized by human rights groups

The actions of Burhan, similarly, have seen the military leader heavily criticized by human rights groups. As the head of the army in power and the country’s de facto head of government, he oversaw a crackdown of pro-democracy activists.

More coups than any other African nation
But these violent transitions are all too familiar for Sudan, which has had more coups than any other African nation. Since gaining independence from the UK in 1956, there have been coups in 1958, 1969, 1985, 1989, 2019, 2021 and 2023.
The army at the center of political transitions

The army has long been at the center of political transitions in Sudan and resistance to civilian rule has been the norm, something that will likely not change anytime soon, experts believe.

Two men that won’t give up power
What makes it tough is having two powerful men, both with a military at their disposal, fighting each other for power that neither seem prepared to relinquish”, writes History Professor Christopher Tounsel for The Conversation.
RSF: less members but better equipped

While various official and non-official estimates place the Sudanese armed forces at around 210-220,000, the RSF are believed to number approximately 70,000 but are better trained and better equipped.

Russia’s mercenary group Wagner sent supplies
Moreover, Russia’s mercenary group, Wagner, involved itself in the conflict by boosting the RSF’s missile supplies, Sudanese and regional diplomatic sources told CNN in April.
Most of Khartoum controlled by the RSF

The RSF now controls most of Khartoum and the army has almost no presence on the streets, with its only tactics to target RSF positions from the air and use heavy artillery from afar, which often result in heavy civilian casualties, The Guardian reported.

Concern about the conflict spreading further
The spread of the conflict in Sudan is also a concern to some experts, since there has been an uneasy peace deal in South Sudanwhich gained independence from Sudan in 2011 and has been beset by ethnic fighting ever since.
The stability of a region at risk

As such, the stakes in the current unrest could go beyond the immediate future of Burhan, Dagalo and even the Sudanese nation. The stability of the region could also be out at risk,” writes Tounsel for The Conversation.

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