Ukraine has nearly everything it was promised for its counter-offensive, will they succeed?

Ukrainian forces are poised to launch their much-anticipated spring counter-offensive and they’ll be doing so with nearly every weapon they were promised by their allies. 

Preparations for Ukraine’s next big push to regain the territory taken by Russia during the early days of Moscow’s invasion have taken months but they’ve certainly paid off. 

Dozens of global coordination meetings and difficult domestic political fights have all culminated in thousands of new weapons pointed at the heart of the occupied territories.

Everything needed is now mostly within Ukrainian hands and NATO’s General Secretary Jens Stoltenburg took time to recognize that during an April 27th press conference. 

Speaking together with Luxembourgian Prime Minister Xavier Bettel, Stoltenberg said that Ukraine had received nearly all of the equipment it was promised by its allies. 

“More than 98 percent of the combat vehicles promised to Ukraine have already been delivered,” Stoltenberg explained while thanking the partners that provided the support. 

“That means over 1,550 armored vehicles, 230 tanks, and other equipment, including vast amounts of ammunition,” NATO’s Secretary General added. 

All of the vehicles and equipment delivered will presumably be used in Ukraine’s coming spring counter-offensive that aims to push Russia out of even more occupied territory, but there are other things that will make a big difference.

Weapons and equipment alone won't be enough to accomplish the goal of pushing Russia out of Ukraine, which is why Stoltenberg spent time discussing the training Ukrainian troops received over the last few months. 

Western allies have trained nine new armored combat brigades, something Stoltenberg said would “put Ukraine in a strong position to continue to retake occupied territory.”

Winning the offensive really does come down to whether or not Ukrainian troops have been able to master Western-style combined arms warfare according to CNN’s Tim Lister. 

Lister reviewed satellite imagery of Russia’s defensive lines in Southern Ukraine and noted they’re littered with layers of anti-tank ditches, minefields, and other obstacles. 

“The defenses continue for hundreds of miles across the meandering southern front,” Lister wrote, adding that this area was the one most likely to see the counter-offensive.

“The challenge for the Ukrainians will be to bypass or overcome such obstacles at speed, creating momentum that causes Russian command and control to melt down," Lister added, but that shouldn’t be a problem considering Ukraine’s new equipment.

Ukraine’s German-made Leopard and British-made Challenger II tanks will make a huge difference when facing off against Russian T-72s. But the real game changer will be the thousand-plus armored vehicles ferrying troops into any breakout gaps created in the lines. 

"The next 30 to 60 days of the campaign will be critical," explained retired United States Marine Corps General Frank McKenzie to Newsweek’s Ellie Cook on April 27th. 

A combination of training, equipment, and planning is what will give Ukraine the win it needs according to Cook, and that might mean we won’t see a counter-offensive until everything is lined up in just the right way for Ukrainian war planners. 

"Ukraine has one go at this, and it's hugely important that it's as successful as possible," Birmingham University Political Science Professor David Dun told Newsweek.