Ukraine is closing in on Putin’s supply lines in the south

Ukrainian forces are making important territorial gains on the southern frontlines of the war that could lead to a much larger victory if Russian supply lines become threatened. 

It's difficult to know what Ukrainian war planners put together when they designed their counter-offensive but analysts suggested an obvious goal could be to cut Russian forces in two in the south of the country via the capture of Melitopol. 

“Melitopol is critical to Ukraine’s counteroffensive because it is considered the gateway to Crimea,” The Washington Post’s Jason Hudson and Alex Horton wrote in August. 

Recapturing Crimea has long been a goal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky but the peninsula serves as an important supply route for the Kremlin’s military forces. 

Melitopol sits at the intersection of two important highways as well as a railroad junction that allows Russia to bring military personnel and equipment via the Crimea Peninsula. 

Screenshot from Google Maps

This supply route is one of the major reasons why the Kremlin can still occupy parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts despite their troops being so far away from Russia. 

In August, The Washington Post reported that American officials told the news agency that the intelligence community didn’t believe Ukraine to recapture the important city. 

However, Ukraine doesn’t need to recapture the Melitopol in order to endanger Russian supply lines in the south of the country, its forces only need to get within firing distance. 

If Ukrainian forces can break through the two remaining Russian defense lines and then capture the city of Tokmak, they could cut off supply access to a huge area of territory. 

That’s because Tokmak sits at the crossroads of five major roadways according to The Daily Kos as well as the rail lines that supply Russian forces from Donetsk and Crimea. 

Screenshot from Google Maps

“If Ukraine captures or surrounds Tokmak, there’s basically no way to get supplies from the East for a Russian counter-offensive without first recapturing Tokmak,” The Daily Kos explained. 

Sadly, Tokmak is one of the most fortified cities in Russian-occupied Ukraine because it just might be the key to Moscow’s defenses in the entire sector, The Daily Kos reported. 

Screenshot from Google Maps

Capturing Tokmak won’t be an easy task but Ukrainian forces are well on their way after breaking through the first line of Russian defenses in August in the Zaporizhzhya region. 

However, Ukraine still has time according to the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, who noted in a recent interview that Kyiv still had 30 to 45 days of fighting left before operations would need to stop due to weather. 

"The Ukrainians are still plugging away with steady progress." General Milley told BBC News’ ‘Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg’. But Milley added that progress had been slow. 

"I said at the very beginning of this [war] that this was going to be long, slow, hard, and high-casualty-producing, and that's exactly what it is," General Milley explained. 

Whether or not Ukraine will be able to capture Tokmak has yet to be seen but the battle for the city has undoubtedly weakened Russian defenses elsewhere along the frontline.