Ukraine’s offensive is going better than you might think

Recent media coverage of Ukraine’s offensive against Russia hasn’t been too kind in its assessment of Kyiv’s progress. The lack of a quick and major breakthrough on land has soured hope of a Ukrainian victory. But things elsewhere are going better than you might think.

Despite the lack of progress on a breakthrough in the land war, Ukraine has made major headway in another area of the war according to Foreign Policy’s Oz Katerji and Vladislav Davidzon, who argued in a recent article that things are going well for Kyiv in some places.

The pair noted that while some criticism focused on the lack of a land breakthrough was justified, it takes away from the progress that has been made in Crimea and the Black Sea in a medium to long-term war being fought across several frontlines against a strong foe. 

“Ukraine has achieved a series of startling victories in and around Crimea,” Katerji and Davidzon, “including missile strikes against the Kerch Strait bridge and multiple daring attacks on the Black Sea Fleet itself.” 

The latter point is important because the attacks focused on Russia’s vaunted Black Sea Fleet compound the damage dealt to Moscow since harassment of the fleet impacts the Kremlin’s ability to operate effectively on the Crimean Peninsula and in the Western Black Sea. 

Ukraine began the war by scuttling its flagship, the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny, so that it wouldn't fall into Russian hands as they approached Mykolaiv during the early invasion of the country according to a report from The Independent. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By U.S. Navy photo by MC2 William Jamieson

The Hetman Sahaidachny was the only frigate that the Ukrainian Navy possessed and its scuttling left Kyiv without any real naval assets. However, that hasn’t stopped Kyiv from prosecuting an extremely effective campaign against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. 

One of the first successes Ukraine had on the Black Sea was the sinking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship the Moskva. It was a symbolic and tactical victory that began a campaign that would eventually see the destruction of several more key naval vessels. 

September 2023 was a particularly difficult month for Russia. The end of the Black Sea Grain Deal brought a new round of violence to the region but it was Russian sailors who were on the major receiving end of defeats that eventually forced Moscow to pull back its naval assets. 

Not only was a kilo-class submarine and Ropucha-class landing ship destroyed while in drydock, but the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet was struck by a missile attack that left dozens of sailors killed or wounded, including “senior leadership” CNN reported. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Photo: LA(Phot) Guy Pool/MOD, OGL v1.0

More attacks followed and Ukraine was able to use its sea drone assets to knock out a few more ships like the missile carrier Buyan and land ship Pavel Derzhavin, both of which occurred after Kyiv attrited Crimea’s air defenses, Katerji and Davidzon reported.

Satellite footage from early October revealed that much of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet had withdrawn from occupied Crimea according to a report from the American think tank the Atlantic Council, which noted the retreat showed the “effectiveness of Ukraine’s tactics.” 

Ukraine’s goal in the Black Sea has been to make Russia’s occupation of the Crimean Peninsula untenable and ensure that Vladimir Putin’s navy cannot safely resupply his military forces in the south of Ukraine, a goal Kyiv has made serious progress in achieving.

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Halifers - Own work

“These successes constitute a major breakthrough for Ukraine,” Katerji and Davidzon wrote in their assessment, “strikes against Crimea have now made it all but impossible for the Russian Black Sea Fleet to continue to operate freely in the western Black Sea.”

The Russian Navy has responded by moving its warships farther east, to the naval base in Novorossiysk, a port city on the Russian mainland,” Katerji and Davidzon continued, adding that this has pushed Russia’s fleet further into the eastern Black Sea. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Arthur Vanzetti - via email, CC BY 3.0,

Achieving such a goal has brought Kyiv closer to its long-term goal of removing Russia from the Crimean Peninsula, by making it unsafe for Moscow’s military, and it’s worked towards the larger goal of beating Russia in Ukraine through the attrition of its forces.