Why is Putin so scared to order a second mobilization?

Vladimir Putin is coming under increasing pressure to take a more aggressive approach to win the war in Ukraine, which would include full-scale mobilization, some experts say. 

However, Putin has been reluctant to call a second mobilization because of concerns it could break from the country’s propaganda narrative according to a Newsweek report. 

On August 20th, Bloomberg News noted that “security hardliners” inside Russia wanted Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to move to “a more aggressive prosecution of the war.”

The reporting was based on five people familiar with the situation who also said a few of the measures hardliners wanted to see included full-scale mobilization and martial law. 

Russian authorities haven’t made any moves toward either of those policies in the time since the Bloomberg report but there have been some very worrying signs for Russians. 

In mid-August, Putin signed a bill into law allowing authorities to issue electronic notices to draftees and reservists, sparking new mobilization fears, Radio Free Europe reported. 

Under the new laws, notices sent electronically would be considered valid immediately and there are some steep consequences for those who are called up and do not show up. 

Those summoned who fail to show up for service will not only be prohibited from leaving Russia but will have their license suspended and could be stopped from selling assets. 

Despite the recent law, there is one reason preventing Putin from announcing a second mobilization, and it’s the fear of a domestic backlash over the unpopularity of the policy. 

Newsweek spoke with University of Chicago political economist Konstantin Sonin about the situation in Russia and he explained Putin knows mobilization is “deeply unpopular.”

“There are a couple of million who are very happy that there is a war against Ukraine, there are a couple of million who are opposing the war, and there are tens of millions who are not supportive and who are not protesting," Sonin said. 

Another reason why Putin isn’t ready to announce another round of mobilization could also be because it would challenge the Kremlin's propaganda narrative on the conflict. 

Sonin explained that the message being conveyed to Russians is that the whole of the country isn’t waging war but rather only a small-scale military operation is taking place. 

"This is what he is fed in the army and police reports, and this is the language that he speaks to his subordinates and the general public,” Sonin said. 

“Announcing a mobilization in the open will be a drastic departure from this worldview, almost like bursting from an informational bubble," Sonin added. 

The Moscow Times noted that Putin has been able to skirt a second call for mobilization by upping efforts to get Russians to sign up voluntarily and serve as contract soldiers. 

Sources involved in the first partial mobilization drive told the news agency they hadn’t seen any signs of a second mobilization but noted the goal was to get people signed up to fight as regular soldiers. 

“If we were really at war with the full might of NATO, then mobilization would be logical and we’d all go off to defend the motherland. But what’s the point of doing that at the moment?” one source said.