Why some voters are shifting to Trump

There are officially fewer than six months until the November elections, and polls suggest that the race is extremely tight between presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

But according to poll aggregator 538, Trump had a slight lead over Biden as of June 6. In total, Trump had 41.1%, Biden had 39.9% and independent Robert F. Kennedy had 9.2% of popular support.

With President Joe Biden winning in the same faceoff in 2020, some people have been switching camps. So, who are these people who voted for Biden last election but now are leaning toward casting their ballots for Trump? The Economist built a statistical model to find out.

According to the Economist, white voters’ preferences have remained fairly solid since 2020. However, racial minorities, have lurched away from Biden. Let’s zoom in…

The Economist data suggests that the most radical shift has come from Latina women. Hispanics make up 19% of the US population, according to the Pew Research Center, so this group’s vote does have significant sway in such a tight race.

According to the Economist data, one of the biggest shifts would be within a hypothetical straight white Latina woman, aged 25-34, living in a California suburb who is either Catholic or Orthodox Christian and who took some college classes. In 2020, 60% voted for Biden. Now, polls suggest that 70% of this group will vote for Trump.

The Economist does not speculate much, besides saying that they have looser party alliances and pay less attention to politics. An article in the Fulcrum theorizes that Trump is associated with Christian values, and Latin women, many of whom are trying to live the American dream, appreciate his entrepreneurial skills. They also may be unhappy with the current state of the economy, and more likely to blame the incumbent.

Trump’s other significant gain has been among Black people aged 35-54, according to the Economist data. However, Pew data still shows that Black voters still prefer Biden over Trump by a four-to-one margin.

As Pew data also shows, one of the notable shifts is that younger Black voters are more Republican than older ones. But as a recent Washington Post story suggests, young Black voters – like many other groups — aren’t overly enthusiastic about either candidate. “We’ve already experienced both of them. They’re both liars,” Lu Rattigan told the Post.

While much is said about racial demographics, the Economist data reveals that the number one predictor of which candidate someone will vote for is religion, which is somewhat ironic given Trump’s recent trial related to an adult film star…

The data suggests that the strongly religious are the biggest Trump supporters — nearly 75% of Evangelical voters and around 65% of Mormon voters want the former president to make America great again.

On the flip side, not believing in God is the number one determinant of someone believing that Joe Biden is the better candidate. Nearly 85% of atheists will cast their ballot for Biden. Black voters are close, followed by Gay or lesbian voters, agnostics, and others on the LGBTQ spectrum.

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