Will Germany's most advanced tank change the course of war in Ukraine?

Germany has finally agreed to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, but how will this state-of-the-art weapon change the face of the war?

After weeks of pressure from his closest allies, German Chancellor Olaf Shultz has finally agreed to supply Ukraine with its most modern main battle tank according to NPR's Rob Schmitz.

Not only will Germany be sending a company of 14 tanks to Ukraine, but it will also allow its European allies to send their stocks of Leopard 2 tanks as well. 

Poland has been biting at the bit to send its stock of Leopard tanks to Ukraine but was stonewalled by the German government, which held the legal “final say” over where its tanks could be used and exported according to a Reuters report. 

The most obvious answer is that Ukraine will have exactly what it needs to begin a new round of counter-offensives against Russia. 

Back in December, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukranian Armed Forces General Valerii Zaluzhny told The Economist that he needed at least 300 main battle tanks in order to support a large-scale counter-offensive to push Russia out of the last of its occupied territory. 

It is unlikely that Ukraine will hit its required 300 number, Germany only has about 320 Leopard 2 tanks in its reserves according to CNN, and is unlikely to send more. But the removal of the Leopard’s export ban could be a major game changer.

Poland, for one, has a stockpile of 247 Leopard 2 tanks and was committed to sending a significant portion of its tanks to their Ukranian ally even if Germany didn’t give them approval. 

“Poland has decided that, as part of the development of an international coalition, it is ready to deliver a company of Leopard tanks to Ukraine,” a spokesperson for the Polish Ministry of National Defence told Defense News.

A standard NATO company consists of 14 tanks but it is likely Poland will send far more Leopard 2’s to Ukraine in the coming weeks as more partners sign on to assist. 

At present, over twelve allied countries were committed to sending at least 100 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine if Germany consented, according to a senior Ukrainian official who spoke with ABC News on January 23rd. 

It may not be the required 300 number but 100 modern Western main battle tanks can make a huge difference in Ukraine’s war with Russia. 

“Tanks represent the most powerful direct offensive weapon provided to Ukraine so far, a heavily armed and armored system designed to meet the enemy head-on instead of firing from a distance,” wrote CNN’s Rob Picheta.

“If used properly with the necessary training, they could allow Ukraine to retake territory against Russian forces that have had time to dig defensive lines,” Picheta continued, adding that the “Leopard 2 tank would be a powerful fighting vehicle for Ukraine’s battlegrounds.”

Tanks have played a major role in shaping the conflict in Ukraine since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but Ukraine has been hamstrung by its numerical and technological deficit. 

“The German-made Leopard 2 is one of the most well-reputed battle tanks in the world, perhaps second only to the U.S.-made M1 Abrams tank,” wrote NPR’s, Becky Sullivan.

“For its part,” Sullivan added, “Ukraine has mostly relied on Soviet-era T-72 tanks.” So the introduction of the Leopard 2 to the battlefield would represent a significant enhancement of Ukraine’s combat capabilities. 

The most likely scenario is that Ukriane’s new Leopards will be combined with the new 90 Stryker combat vehicles and 59 Bradley fighting vehicles they're receiving from the U.S. to form a cohesive armored brigade capable of breaking through in Russia’s vulnerable southern position. 

If successful, Ukrainian forces could cut Crimea off from reinforcement and supply, starving out Russian troops in the south of Ukraine in a manner similar to their Kherson offensive in late 2022. 

According to retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, Western tanks like the Leopard 2 could be used as "the spearhead of a force that could break through those Russian defenses down towards Mariupol."

Vladimir Putin has yet to comment on Germany’s decision to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine but Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov condemned the move and said it would only lead to further escalation. 

"Such deliveries do not bode well for the future of the relationship," Peskov said. "They will certainly leave an indelible mark on the future of this relationship."

Experts are predicting that Ukraine’s new Leopard 2 tanks make an appearance on the battlefield as early as this spring according to reporting from Breaking Defense, which means Russia may not have long before it is finally kicked out of its occupied territories.