Will women cost Trump the presidency in November?

Donald Trump and his particularly cynical brand of populist politics have brought several loyal voting blocks into his camp but the former president’s decisions and personality may have hurt him with one group of voters he will need to win in November. 

Recent polling has revealed that Joe Biden and Trump are virtually running neck in neck when it comes to which one is likely to win the presidential election. Every single vote is going to matter and both candidates are facing challenges. 

For the former president, his political choices and his general behavior in public are two areas where Trump’s decisions have hurt him with one of the most critical voting blocks in the country: women. Trump just isn’t popular among females. 

In 2020, Trump won a slightly larger margin of female voters than he did when faced off against Hillary Clinton in 2016. The former president captured 44% of female voters in 2020 while he only won 39% in 2016 according to the Pew Research Center. 

On the other hand, Biden remained consistent with the percentage of female voters that he was able to win over in 2020 when compared with Clinton. Clinton captured 55% of women in 2016 while Biden took 54% of the female vote in 2022.

These statistics are likely to be a major problem for Trump going into 2024 since things have only gotten worse for the former president among female voters based on recent polling. One such poll in January 2024 found Trump was losing major ground with women. 

Survey results from a Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters found that 58% of women said they would back Biden and only 36% reported they would vote for Trump, which was down from similar polling in December that found Trump held 41% support. 

“The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said according to Politico. “Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden.”

More recent polling from The New York Times and Siena College in April also found that Biden had a 16-point lead over Trump with 53% of support among the women surveyed while Trump only held 37% support from women.

Newsweek Kate Plummer reported that Trump’s “declining support among women could cost him the election” with the polls being so close. It’s a sentiment that could prove true considering Trump’s stance on abortion and his recent legal issues. 

"Abortion rights is the most important issue in this campaign right now and likely will continue to be until the election in November,” Heath Brown, an associate professor of public policy at City University of New York explained to Newsweek. 

Trump reportedly told Time magazine’s politics reporter Eric Cortellessa during an extensive phone interview released April 30th, that he wouldn’t intervene with state decisions on abortion policies, even in situations where states seek to prosecute those who violate abortion bans according to The Washington Post. 

Trump also refused to say whether or not he would veto any possible federal restrictions if he was elected again and refused to provide a clear answer regarding whether or not he would be comfortable with states prosecuting women for having abortions. 

“The states are going to say. It’s irrelevant whether I’m comfortable or not. It's totally irrelevant, because the states are going to make those decisions.” Trump explained. However, he did reiterate he thought Florida's six-week abortion ban was too strict. 

Another issue that will likely affect the number of women who vote for the former president in November is his ongoing drama with E. Jean Carrol, whom a civil court found Trump had indeed assaulted and ordered him to pay $83.3 million in damages, as well as his current Stormy Daniels hush money case which kicked off in April 2024. 

"His enabling of the overturning of Roe v Wade, his boorish Alpha male characterization in the media and his recent court appearances in both the E Jean Carroll and Stormy Daniels cases do little to win over younger, more centrist or minority women,” associate professor of politics at the University of Surrey mark  Shanahan told Newsweek. 

Shanahan went on to note that Trump’s older female MAGA supporters were dying off and added: "Biden has tied himself to his support of women's reproductive rights and… largely supports progressive female causes. it is no surprise he's polling well ahead of Trump among women."

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