Experts warn it’s cheaper for Washington to keep supporting Ukraine

Supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia will cost the United States far less money in the long run than if Washington stops supporting its embattled ally according to a new report from the American Enterprise Institute. 

The Washington-based think tank published its report on January 9th and argued that it was in America’s interest to continue supporting Ukraine based on one key factor, doing so would be cheaper than halting U.S. help. 

The authors of the report noted that while the United States has many issues to worry about in 2025—such as immigration, the national debt, competition with China, and a deteriorating situation in the Middle East—Ukraine shouldn't be forgotten. 

“Though many Americans are understandably confused and concerned about the cost of this aid, worrying only about what assistance to Ukraine costs is thinking about the issue the wrong way,” the authors explained. 

According to the authors, rather than thinking about the upfront cost of supporting the Ukrainians, Americans should think in terms of what allowing Russia to win in Ukraine would ultimately cost the United States in the long run. 

“Right now, by providing aid to Kyiv, the United States is preventing Russia from directly threatening eastern and central Europe—something that would doubtlessly consume more American resources,” the authors explained in their executive summary.  

“Washington may, in fact, be deterring a direct war between NATO and Moscow, one in which United States forces would have to fight,” the report's authors continued before noting what allowing Russia to win could end up costing Washington over five years. 

If Russia is victorious in Ukraine, it could mean the United States would end up roughly $808 billion dollars in defense spending over five years whereas Washington has spent just $175 billion supporting Ukraine since 2022, $122 billion of which was given to the U.S. Department of Defense. 

“That means the aid provided to Ukraine through the Pentagon is less than 14 percent of what it would cost Washington to defend Europe against a victorious Russia,” the authors explained. 

“The $112 billion is also spent mostly at home, on domestic weapons production. Put another way, allowing Russia to defeat Ukraine would cost the United States about seven times more than preventing a Russian victory,” the authors added. 

Washington would need to spend $808 billion on top of what the Pentagon will already need to spend to meet the “defense capacity, capability, and posture” that the country will require to face in a world where Russia defeats Ukraine. 

Bloomberg reported the U.S. Department of Defense’s current five-year plan will see the country spend $4.4 trillion on defense. Adding another $808 billion over five years would push the budget to $ 5.2 trillion and add $165 billion annually. 

As the national debt rises, it would seem then that continuing aid is the prudent course of action. However, it should be noted that Bloomberg reported the American Enterprise Institute is “known for its hawkish views on defense.”

“The near-term costs of assisting Ukraine so it can defend itself against Russia’s aggression are far less expensive than the long-term costs of allowing Russia to win,” the authors explained. Whether this advice will be heeded has yet to be seen. 

Donald Trump, and several members of his incoming administration, have signaled their skepticism about continuing American military assistance to Ukraine. Unfortunately, it is impossible to know how Trump will manage the situation until he is back in office. 

A ray of light for Ukraine can be found in a recent revision of Trump’s timeline for peace between Kyiv and Moscow, something first reported by the Financial Times on January 9th. 

Trump allegedly pushed his timeline to end the war from 24 hours to several months according to two unnamed European officials, which could mean Washington won’t immediately cut off its military aid to Kyiv once Trump takes office.

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