Kamala outshines Trump on major election issue

Trump thought he'd easily win the election now it isn't so clear
Why does the economy matter for 2024?
New polling data reveals problems
Harris leads Trump for the first time
Harris leads 42% to Trump’s 41%
Close but a major reversal for Trump
A better approval rating than Biden
Was Biden just a bad candidate?
The economy could be a winner for Harris
Voters want Harris to break with Biden
The economy is important to Americans
Problems for Harris in the polling
Trump is more trusted on trade with China
The polling is still a good sign
Good news for Democrats, but…
Other polling shows Trump ahead
More up in the air than ever
Trump thought he'd easily win the election now it isn't so clear

When it was Trump vs. Biden, Donald thought he had the election in the bag. But now that President Biden has dropped out of the race and has been replaced by Kamala Harris, things have gotten a lot more complicated.

 

Why does the economy matter for 2024?

Donald Trump has held one advantage over Kamala Harris since she took over the top of the 2024 Democratic ticket: he was thought to be the better candidate for the economy. However, that view is changing. 

New polling data reveals problems

New polling from the Financial Times conducted by the University of Michigan Ross Business School found that Harris is now more trusted than Trump on the economy. That is bad news for the former president. 

Harris leads Trump for the first time

The survey is the first new monthly polling data showing a Democratic candidate ahead of Trump on the economy since Ross Business School began tracking this metric more than a year ago, according to the Financial Times.  

Harris leads 42% to Trump’s 41%

42% of the 1,001 registered voters that were questioned said they trusted Harris and her ability to handle the economy, compared to 41% who said the same for Trump. The numbers may seem close, but they are much better than what Joe Biden inspired in voters.

Close but a major reversal for Trump

Trump’s numbers on the economy were unchanged from the previous month’s poll data, but Harris was able to improve Democratic standing on the issue by 7 points compared to what Biden was able to muster in July.  

A better approval rating than Biden

Harris also performed better with registered voters than Biden when it came to approval ratings. Harris enjoyed a 46% approval rating for her job as Vice President, compared to Biden, who only received a 41% approval rating for his job as President.  

Was Biden just a bad candidate?

“The fact that voters were more positive on Harris than on Biden … says as much about how badly Biden was doing as it does about how well Harris is doing,” said University of Michigan professor Erik Gordon, according to Financial Times.

The economy could be a winner for Harris

The new survey data also showed that the economy could become a major policy issue for Harris if she plays her cards right and distinguishes herself from Biden on the matter. 

Voters want Harris to break with Biden

60% of those surveyed said that Harris should break completely from Biden’s economic policies or “make major changes” to his platform, according to Financial Times. If Harris can distinguish herself, it could prove the ticket to victory in November. 

The economy is important to Americans

“Since polling conducted in March, the largest swath of voters has listed economic issues as the most important factor driving their vote for president as fears of a recession continue to plague the nation,” Avery Lots of Axios explained. 

Problems for Harris in the polling

Lots also pointed out that not everything in the new Michigan Ross Business School survey was in Harris’ favor. For example, only 12% of respondents believed Harris’ economic plans would leave them “much better off” while 22% said the same for Trump. 

Trump is more trusted on trade with China

A larger portion of those polled also said that they trusted the former president more to handle trade issues with China, at 43% compared to 39% who said the same for Harris. 

The polling is still a good sign

Still, the polling is good for the Democrats and shows that Harris has had a substantial impact on the race, though it shows there is still work to be done—something that Erik Gordon also noted according to the Financial Times.

Good news for Democrats, but…

“The poll is good news for previously anxious Democrats, but their worries aren’t over because voters still see themselves better off with Trump as president, and most voters think of their interests first and grand policy questions second.”

Other polling shows Trump ahead

Other polling has seen Trump ahead of Harris on the economy, according to CNBC, which pointed to its most recent All-American Economic Survey that found the former president was ahead of Harris on the economy 2-to-1. 

More up in the air than ever

Regardless of how Americans are feeling about either Harris or Trump’s potential to improve the economy, the issue is likely set to become one of the many main deciding factors in November. But which candidate will capitalize on this issue is more up in the air than ever it seems. 

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