Remembering the high losses Russia suffered after launching its attack on Avdiivka

The Ukrainian city of Avdiivka stood on the frontlines of the fight against Moscow for more than a decade and was the site of a months-long offensive that kicked off in October 2023 and ended when Russia captured the town in February 2024.

The fall of Avdiivka was the first significant win Moscow achieved since the fall of Bakhmut in May 2023, and the fight to take Avdiika cost Russia a lot in both men and material according to Ukraine's estimates.

Newsweek reported that Ukrainian that Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the man in charge of the forces defending Avdiivka and the surrounding areas on the frontlines, called the Kremlin lost 47,186 troops, 364 tanks, and 748 armored fighting vehicles during the months-long battle.

The battle for Avdiivka itself proved to be a newsworthy event and one report that came from early in the struggle revealed the massive losses Russia suffered within the first weeks of their offensive to capture the city.

A November 4th, 2023 war update from the UK Ministry of Defence revealed that Moscow lost upwards of 200 armored vehicles in the first weeks of fighting after launching its operation to capture Avdiivka. 

Russia’s losses were likely due to a combination of factors according to the update, which included the “relative effectiveness of Ukraine's modern hand-held anti-armor weapons. mines, uncrewed aerial vehicle-dropped munitions, and precision artillery systems.”

The Washington-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War confirmed the loss of roughly 200 armored vehicles in a November 1st campaign assessment from its experts on the topic, noting 197 armored vehicles had been lost or damaged since October 9th, 2023. 

Russia lost 99 armored vehicles in the first wave of assaults against Avdiivka between October 9th and 13th according to the group, and then suffered 94 more losses during the second wave that took place between October 14th and 23rd. 

More vehicles were lost following the second wave of assaults on Avdiivka and the Institute for the Study of War claimed 4 had been confirmed while there could have been as many as 18 other unconfirmed losses at that time that took place between October 24th to the 31st. 

"We can conclude now that this is by far the most costly Russian assault during three weeks for one city since the beginning of the war," George Barros, an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War, told Business Insider on November 4th. 

Moscow launched its new offensive to capture Avdiivka on October 10th but the Russian Armed Forces gained little territory after the operation started and suffered enormous casualties in the fighting to capture the Ukrainian-held city. 

Much of the devastation was relayed in real-time by Ukrainian officials and media outlets that revealed the increasing cost Moscow was suffering in its pursuit of the city. The casualties and armored vehicle losses would only continue to grow as Russia pushed forward with its offensive to take Avdiivka. 

"We've destroyed a lot of their equipment, so now the enemy continues to push forward with infantry," stated Ukraine Tavriisk Group spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun in the days after Russia launched its offensive. 

Colonel Shtupun claimed that Russia was launching “meat grinder assaults” according to Newsweek, and added that Ukrainian forces had destroyed more than 300 pieces of military equipment and killed about 3000 Russian soldiers at that time. 

In the UK Defence Ministry’s November 4th update, it reported that Russian forces likely switched to “dismounted infantry-based assaults” in the sector containing Avdiivka in response to the loss of so many vehicles, which might explain some of the larger losses that would follow as the months-long battle for Avdiivka progressed. 

“Like previous Russian offensives, the Avdiivka assaults have often been characterized by advances across open ground, leading to high losses,” the update explained, adding that was possible Russia had experienced thousands of casualties at that time. 

“It is plausible that Russia has suffered several thousand personnel casualties around the town since the start of October 2023,” the ministry update continued. However, the losses haven’t stopped Russia from pressing on with its offensive. 

“Russia’s leadership continues to demonstrate a willingness to accept heavy personnel losses for marginal territorial gains,” the update added. But what were analysts and onlookers making of the battle of the battle on November 2023?

Carlotta Gall of The New York Times noted that Avdiivka was strategically important to Moscow and added that If Russia captured the city it would “push Ukrainian forces back from the threshold of Donetsk and open up the main rail and road routes for Russian forces in the area.”

Moreover, Gall reported that Avdiivka held a significant political value for Vladimir Putin. The city had been resisting capture since 2014 so its defeat “would be a major coup” for Russia as it heads into winter. Whether or not the city will fall has yet to be seen. 

Avdiivka's capture did turn out to be a major coup of Putin just as Russian voters were preparing to vote in the country's presidential election. However, though the city of Avdiivka may have been strategically important, Russia has yet to capitalize on its capture as of April 3rd, 2024.