Russia is massing troops and tanks for a new assault

The Russian Armed Forces appear to be preparing for a massive new offensive assault in eastern Ukraine according to military and media reports. Tens of thousands of troops are massing but what is Moscow’s ultimate goal?

Forbes reported that Ukraine's Eastern Command revealed that 500 tanks, 600 armored fighting vehicles, and hundreds of howitzers along with 40,000 soldiers have assembled just opposite of Kupyansk.

Kupyansk is a small city in Kharkiv Oblast but it has been the focus of Russia's military effort in eastern Ukraine ever since it was recaptured by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in its 2022 lighting offensive to take back large swaths of territory. 

Why Kupyansk is important isn’t a difficult question to answer. The city is a key intersection for Ukraine's rail network and five hubs run through Kupyansk, which makes the city one of great strategic importance for whichever side has it. 

However, the goal of Russia’s new offensive isn’t just to capture Kupyansk but rather all of Kharkiv Oblast according to the Center for Defense Strategies, a Ukrainian-based think tank that has been covering the war in the country. 

In a February 3rd situation update, the Center for Defense Strategies Russian plans for Ukraine may have shifted towards the full seizure of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and parts of Kharkiv Oblast all the way up to the Oskil River. 

The goal is to capture all of this territory by March 2024 according to the think tank. Why March? Because that’s when Russia’s new presidential election will reach its climax and Forbes suggested it would be helpful for Vladimir Putin. 

“A slice of Kharkiv would be an election-day gift to Putin from the Russian army in Ukraine," Forbes’ David Axe wrote. But Ukraine won’t be giving up Kupyansk or other parts of the Kharkiv Oblast without a fight, though they may be in trouble. 

Opposing the amassing Russian forces are 10 Ukrainian brigades anchored by the 3rd Tank Brigade in the north and the 4th Tank Brigade in the south. The defense force is a sizable one. But will it be enough to halt an assault?

Ukraine has about 20,000 troops in the area, as well as hundreds of its own tanks and other military equipment waiting. But the major issue isn’t with Ukraine's personnel or its equipment but rather with its stocks of ammunition. 

“The United States was one of the biggest donors of 155-millimeter shells for Ukraine’s best big guns—and pro-Russia Republicans in the U.S. Congress cut off aid to Ukraine last fall,” Axe explained about the situation. 

“Since then, Ukrainian forces’ daily allotment of shells has fallen by two-thirds to just 2,000 rounds. Russian forces meanwhile fire as many as 10,000 shells a day, thanks to a steady supply of ammo from North Korea.” Axe added. 

The added fire superiority will give Russia an edge in any upcoming battle, a situation that empowers Russia to execute a well-known approach: the systematic destruction of urban areas, rendering them indefensible,” wrote Frontelligence Insight. 

Russia also has a manpower edge. On February 6th, Ukraine’s Operational Command East spokesman Illia Yevlash explained on television that Russia kept roughly 110,000 soldiers in the Lyman-Kupyansk sector since late 2023. 

Moreover, Yevlash explained that the 40,000 soldiers amassed by Russia posed a “real threat” and shouldn’t be underestimated according to a translation of his comments by the New voice of Ukraine. But he did add not all of the troops would be on the frontlines. 

“I want to reiterate that in terms of personnel,” Yevlash stated, “it does not mean that all these 40,000 people are simultaneously deployed to frontline combat duty.” But Ukraine has its own advantages that it can bring to bear against Russia. 

Ukraine is building up an extensive defensive trench and bunker network to counter the future Russian offensive and the country is now able to build tens of thousands of FPV drones a month according to Forbes. 

It’s likely that the hundreds of pieces of military equipment and thousands of soldiers preparing to take Kupyansk will be met with swarms of explosive drones as Ukraine works to preserve its artillery ammunition. 

“But can a swarm of two-pound drones, even thousands of them, defeat 500 tanks and 650 fighting vehicles as they attack behind a wall of artillery fire?” Axe questioned his explanation of the situation. “We may find out.”