Ukraine collapsing is not a possibility that can be ruled out official says

Ukraine is being put in an increasingly difficult position as Moscow ramps up its assaults on an embattled nation that is running low on the vital weapons and ammunition needed to fend off Russia. But could Ukraine collapse?

According to one unnamed official who spoke with Bloomberg News, the possibility that the Ukrainian army could collapse cannot be ruled. Morale is low, the official revealed to the news outlet on the condition of anonymity. 

However, another unnamed official told Bloomberg News that the United States did not see any signs that there would be an immediate breakthrough. But the current situation doesn’t look good in the long term for Ukraine. 

Kyiv has several problems mounting as it waits for more aid from its partners. One of its most pressing issues is the relative lack of weapons and ammunition that is having very real consequences across the war’s frontlines. 

On April 8th, The Washington Post reported on the problems faced by an artillery platoon in the 59th Motorized Brigade. The platoon had fired twenty and thirty shells a day when ammunition was more readily available. 

However, that same platoon was limiting its fire to just one or two shells a day due to the lack of resources. The situation has forced the artillerymen to be more selective in terms of what targets on the front they choose to hit. 

The Ukrainian military is prioritizing equipment on the battlefield for groups of troops and one soldier explained: “We don’t have a lot of ammunition, so that’s why we don’t work a lot.” But the issue is more than a lack of shells. 

Russian production is outstripping what is being provided to the Ukrainians and Moscow can also rely on its allies—Iran and North Korea—to provide its armed forces with more shells and that puts Ukraine at a disadvantage. 

Bloomberg News reports that Russia is set to secure six million artillery shells in 2024 alone while a separate report from the news outlet reported the European Union would only produce 1.2 million shells and the US 1.2 million a year by 2025. 

Even more worrying than the large shell disparities Ukraine faces is the fact that Russia has reconstituted its invasion forces and grown it by one-fifth according to US European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander US Christopher Cavoli. 

"They've grown back to what they were before," Cavoli said in a House Armed Services Committee Hearing on April 11th. "They've got some gaps that have been produced by this war, but their overall capacity is still very significant.”

Cavoli also revealed in a written statement that the Kremlin has upped its invasion force from 360,000 soldiers to 470,000. “The army is actually now larger — by 15 percent — than it was when it invaded Ukraine,” he wrote according to Politico. 

Cavoli’s testimony served as a stark warning for what may come in the future if the US doesn’t help Ukraine. The four-star general noted Kyiv was “almost entirely dependent” on outside help to fight off Russia’s invasion. 

Artillery and air defense interceptors were two key weapons Cavoli said Ukraine needed and he pointed out that not providing more help could swing the war in Moscow’s favor. “The severity of this moment cannot be overstated,” he stated. 

“If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine could lose… If Ukraine fails in this fight, I think problems radiate outwards, beginning with Europe,” Cavoli said, adding Russia would be emboldened and was building a military to continue its aggressive behavior. 

Whether or not Ukraine will suffer a breakthrough and subsequent collapse of its armed forces is not yet known but the country’s Defense Minister said Moscow was massing its forces to the west of Bakhmut to attempt a breakthrough. 

"I have been visiting combat units on the Eastern front. The situation is tense. The enemy is attempting to advance towards the Defence Forces’ positions, concentrating [forces] for a breakthrough west of Bakhmut,” Rustem Umierov said on April 14th according to Ukrianska Pravda.

The deciding factor in the upcoming Russian attack could be Ukraine’s lack of important weapons like artillery and air defense interceptors. However, the world won’t know what will happen until Moscow launches its possible offensive.