American aid to Ukraine is about to dry up and it will be bad

Ukraine’s American security assistance is on the verge of running out and lawmakers in Congress seem poised to continue their pushback against any more financial and military aid for the embattled nation with getting concessions from Joe Biden. But how might this affect the war?

On December 4th, the Director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget Shalanda Young sent a worrying letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson warning that the country’s aid money for Ukraine would run dry before the end of 2023.

Young made it clear that unless Congress acted quickly and approved new assistance to Ukraine, there would be no resources left to procure weapons and military equipment in Kyiv and America’s own military and equipment stockpiles. 

“There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment,” Young explained in her letter. “We ran out of money—and nearly ran out of time,” she continued, adding that a lack of funding would hamstring the Ukrainians on the battlefield. 

“Already, our packages of security assistance have become smaller and the deliveries of aid have become more limited. If our assistance stops, it will cause significant issues for Ukraine,” Young noted. But her appeal went unheeded. 

There is a deepening impasse on the issue of providing more aid to Ukraine for some of the Republicans in Congress according to the Associated Press, which reported that the prospect of aid approval this year is “increasingly out of reach.”

The assessment by the Associated Press could be accurate after Senate Republicans rejected an emergency bill on December 6th that would have seen $50 billion dollars in new aid for Ukraine by a vote of 49 in favor to 51 against. 

Some Republicans in the House haven’t been too keen to help Ukraine as of late either, and much like the issues in the Senate, the House is focused on squeezing what it can from the Biden administration on the issue of US border security. 

Unfortunately, all of this political partisanship in the United States has put Ukraine in a worrying situation according to the country's First Lady Olena Zelensky, who spoke out after the US Senate voted against more aid for her country. 

Zelensky explained during an interview with BBC News that failing to secure more aid for Ukraine would be a “gift” for Russia and Vladimir Putin and added that history would “judge harshly those who turned their back on freedom's cause.”

"We really need the help. In simple words, we cannot get tired of this situation, because if we do, we die. And if the world gets tired, they will simply let us die," Zelensky added. "It is a matter of life for us. Therefore, it hurts to see that."

Despite Zelensky’s plea, Republicans will likely keep squeezing Biden for concessions on the border since they hold all the leverage and their voting base seems to have lost its desire to continue providing military and financial aid to Kyiv. 

A Pew Center Research poll published December 8th showed that 48% of Republicans and people who lean Republican think that the country has provided too much aid to Ukraine while only 29% thought the amount was right.  

What would happen if the United States halted its funding to Ukraine is not known but it likely wouldn't be good.  The Head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office Andriy Yermak warned that his country could lose the war if military and financial assistance from the U.S. stopped flowing. 

While speaking at ​​the U.S. Institute for Peace while on a trip to Washington, Yermak explained that a lack of support from the United States would make it “impossible” for Kyiv to liberate its occupied territories, and more importantly, could risk Ukraine losing the war according to NBC News. 

Fears of being cut off from American aid have already begun affecting decisions on the battlefield according to Congressional Ukraine Caucus co-chair Mike Quigley, who told CNN’s Jim Scuiutto on December 6th that Ukraine was already rationing its munitions. 

The broader implications of America’s current impasse in the U.S. Congress were noted by CNN in a recent report noting America’s abandonment of Ukraine may embolden the world’s dictators and reveal the benefits of provocative policies. 

“The abandonment of Ukraine would send a message to authoritarians like Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping that smaller adversaries can be crushed with impunity and that there are rewards for geopolitical gangsterism,” CNN’s Stephen Collins wrote.

“It would confirm the belief of American adversaries, including Russia and China, that poisoned domestic politics will make it impossible for the US to wield superpower power and shield global democracy,” Collins added.