American cities are seeing a major drop in homicides

American cities are seeing their homicide rates fall at the fastest pace in decades after a worrying meteoric rise during the pandemic. Violent crime and homicide rates may soon reach their lowest levels since Barack Obama was in office. 

The Wall Street Journal was the first outlet to report on analysis from the data consulting firm AH Datalytics which showed many of the country’s cities are seeing a major decline in their homicide rates after a period of rising violence levels. 

Homicide rates in the United States spiked by nearly thirty percent during the pandemic period Voice of America reported, which noted the phenomenon unfolded in both cities and across the country’s rural areas according to the outlet.

However, recent data has revealed that homicide rates are now declining as fast as they had risen, at least in many of the country’s cities. AH Datalytic’s looked at 133 cities and found a major decrease in nationwide homicide. 

Homicides in American cities dropped by 20% from the beginning of the year to the end of March compared to the same period in 2023, according to AH Datalytic’s co-founder and crime analyst Jeff Asher, who spoke with the Wall Street Journal. 

Asher explained that several places could be pointed to showing “widespread positive trends.” For example, at the time the report was published, Boston had experienced 2 homicides as of March 31st compared to 11 the previous year. 

“There’s just a ton of places that you can point to that are showing widespread, very positive trends,” Asher explained. “Nationally, you’re seeing a very similar situation to what you saw in the mid-to-late ’90s. 

Philadelphia saw one of the most dramatic reductions in homicides, dropping 35% from the previous year based on police data as of April 12th while New York saw its homicide rate fall by 15% as of April 7th. 

Columbus, Ohio saw homicides in the city decline by a tremendous 58% as of April 7th compared to the same period in 2023. However, all of these positive trends come on the back of falling homicide rates that began in 2023. 

CBS News reported in March 2024 that the FBI Quarterly Crime Report noted that there was a 6% decrease in violent crime from 2022 to 2023 and added homicides specifically had decreased by 13% in that period according to the data. 

“We know that hard fought progress can easily slip away, and we must remain focused and vigilant," Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement, adding the Justice Department would continue to work towards “driving down violent crime.”

However, not all of the cities looked at by AH Datalytics saw decreases in their homicide rates in the first months of 2024. Axios reported Los Angeles saw its homicide rate jump by 9% based on the analysis from AH Datalytics. 

Altlanta also saw its homicide rate surge by 15% in the first months of 2024 compared to the previous year in the same time frame while St. Louis, Savannah, Georgia, and Albuquerque, New Mexico were also seeing murders rise. 

Despite the increasing murder rates in some U.S. cities, the general trend is a positive one and the Wall Street Journal noted that if the declining rates continue then the U.S. could be on track to match the homicide rates of 2014. 

Interestingly, 2014 saw the lowest homicide rates in the United States since the 1960s but police and receivers have warned that predicting crime rates can be difficult, so the country will have to wait and see how the situation unfolds over the coming months, 

“It’s not one single thing that makes that number fall. Here in D.C., and I’m sure it’s like this in most cities, it’s a collaboration of efforts,” D.C. Metropolitan Police Department Assistant Chief Leslie Parsons told the Wall Street Journal.