Can Russia win a complete victory over Ukraine in 2024?

Can Russia win a complete victory over Ukraine in 2024? It is a complicated question but one that has a straightforward answer. Here’s what you should expect from the next twelve months of the Russian war to conquer Ukraine. 

Anything can happen in war. So a complete Russian victory is possible. However, such a victory would only be possible if there was a total collapse of organized resistance from Ukraine, which isn’t likely to happen. 

First, recent polling of the Ukrainian population in November and December by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology revealed that the willingness of people to trade land for peace has dipped, but not by much. 

In May 2023, 84% of the Ukrainian population said that they were unwilling to achieve peace and preserve the country’s independence by giving up some Ukrainian land while in December that number was 74%. 

As long as Ukrainians are willing to fight, it’s unlikely Moscow will win a complete victory, but there are also signs from Ukraine and the country's allies that they are preparing to fight a long war against Russia. 

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has expressed that the alliance’s members need to be prepared for a long war on several occasions recently, one of the latest of which occurred in mid-September according to Politico. 

“Most wars last longer than expected when they first begin,” Stoltenberg explained while being interviewed by the German broadcast network ARD. “Therefore we must prepare ourselves for a long war in Ukraine.” 

There have also been signs from Ukraine that Kyiv has begun preparing to fight a long war, and the most important piece of evidence came from General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief. 

In November, General Zaluzhny argued in an article with The Economist that the war in Ukraine had reached a stalemate. However, Zaluzhny’s comments were meant to show the path to victory was through innovation. 

The next twelve months will likely see Ukraine work towards solving the major issue on the battlefield—that of drone dominance. Drones have become a major limiting factor for both Russia and Ukraine in terms of offensives. 

General Zaluzhny urged innovation in drone technology, electronic warfare, anti-artillery capabilities, and demining equipment, all of which Kyiv is likely to focus on as leaders prepare to fight a long war against Russia. 

The new year will see a new effort to beef up Kyiv’s homemade drone fleet, and in his end-of-year press conference, Volodymyr Zelensky noted that the country was going to make one million drones in 2024 according to the Kyiv Post.  

These drones will be put to use on the battlefield to destroy Russian troops and material but larger medium and long-range drones will also be produced according to Ukraine's Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin. 

Whether or not Ukraine will launch an offensive at some point in 2024 is debatable. The country’s most important allies may be hoping that Ukraine will spend the next 12 months rebuilding its military combat power.

We know that Kyiv could be in trouble after Zelensky revealed during his year-end press conference that the military requested that 450,000 to 500,000 new troops be mobilized for the country's defense according to the Kyiv Post.

Focusing on defense would be an appropriate goal for Ukraine in 2024 according to Stefan Wolffm, a professor of interaction security at the University of Birmingham, and Tetyana Malyarenko, a professor of international relations at Odesa Law Academy. 

Wolffm and Malyarenko wrote in a recent piece for The Conversation that focusing on Ukraine's defense “would allow Ukraine an urgently needed rethink and refresh of military and political strategies for how to end the war.”

On the other hand, Russia is likely to continue attacking Ukraine in an effort to break the will of its people and snatch up as much territory as possible, and despite the big losses Vladimir Putin has suffered, he still has a lot of political goodwill. 

Support for the invasion of Ukraine in Russia according to polling from the independent Russian polling group Levada Center has stayed high throughout the conflict with three-quarters of Russians supporting the special military operation. 

Putin is also still incredibly popular in Russia with eight out of ten Russians noting that they supported the actions of Putin as of October 2023 according to data published by the Statista Research Department. 

Moreover, Putin made it clear during his end-of-year press conference on December 14th that there would be no peace until Russia met its objectives, namely the neutrality as well as “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine according to Reuters. 

"Practically along the entire line of contact, our armed forces are, shall we say, modestly improving their position. Virtually all are in an active stage of action," Putin explained, so you shouldn’t expect an end to the violence. 

The war in 2024 is likely to see Russia throwing its soldiers against Ukraine's prepared defense for little gain and the results of such a strategy and what they could gain for Russia are unknown. 

Some major victories may be won but it won’t be like the early days of the conflict and victory for Russia could depend on the West and what Ukraine's allies are willing to do in order to help Kyiv over the next year of fighting. 

The Atlantic Council noted that Western aid has played a crucial role in keeping Ukraine in the fight against Russia. More than 100 billion dollars has been allocated to Kyiv ever since the conflict kicked off in February 2022. 

Europe has also played its part in supplying military and financial aid to Ukraine, and the European Union as a whole has provided $80 billion in overall aid to Ukraine. However, what happens if either aid source runs dry?