Canada needs more immigration despite its recent record highs

Immigration has become a red-hot political issue in Canada with many citizens believing the federal government has set its targets far higher than what the country can handle. But a new report argues Canada needs more, not fewer immigrants in order to survive.

Canada has become a nation dominated by its immigration policy. In 2021, a census by the federal government showed one in four people living in Canada were not born in the country—something the government noted was the highest since the nation’s founding. 

In January, Immigration Minister Sean Fraser announced the federal government’s plan to significantly ramp up the level of newcomers and revealed the country’s new targets aimed at stemming the growing problems Canada would face from its aging population. 

"If we don't continue to increase our immigration ambition and bring more working-age population and young families into this country, our questions will not be about labor shortages, generations from now," Fraser said in an interview with The Canadian Press. 

“They're going to be about whether we can afford schools and hospitals," Fraser added, and his comments hit at the heart of Justin Trudeau and his government’s drive to raise the number of people coming to the country after having a record-breaking year in 2022. 

An astonishing 431,645 people became permanent residents last year and targets over the next several years will see 500,000 new immigrants coming to Canada per year by 2025—a number the government argues is necessary as the country’s birth rate falls. 

The plan hasn’t been a popular one among Trudeau’s political rivals and the country’s citizens have been voicing their anger as Canada’s lowering standard of living gets tied to the issue of immigration. But a new report argues more immigration really is needed. 

“What’s the right number of newcomers to welcome to Canada?” questioned Desjardin Senior Director of Canadian Economics Randall Bartlett in his report on immigration in Canada, adding the policy was “imperative for Canada’s long‑term economic success.”

Bartlett analyzed the rate of population growth needed among the country’s working-age population, those aged 15-64, in order to stabilize Canada’s old-age dependency ratio, a ratio Global News noted refers to the balance of those 15-64 versus those 65 and older. 

What Bartlett found was that the country needed to have a 2% yearly growth in its working-age population through to 2040 in order to maintain the same ratio that existed in 2022 and to push the ratio even lower the nation would need to bring in even more immigrants. 

"I feel like the discussion around immigration levels in Canada, by and large, focuses on the immediate impact on the Canadian housing market," Bartlett said according to CTV News, adding he wanted to show the broader benefits of immigration for Canadians. 

"We need immigration at a relatively high rate, actually, in order to offset the economic impacts of aging—to be able to pay for the health care that Canadian seniors are going to need," the Desjardin Senior Director of the Canadian Economy continued. 

Bartlett went on to explain that immigration also provided Canada with a host of other benefits since those who were coming to the country had the potential to raise the GDP growth in the nation since they were highly productive and engaged in the labor force. 

Some newcomers did little to help Canada, Bartlett conceded. But when the aggregate was examined immigration provided a net positive to the country and would do more in the long run to raise living standards and incomes. 

"We're bringing in very, very talented people," Bartlett said. They are able to find jobs and "generate earnings very quickly that are outpacing the Canadian average.”

Unfortunately more people also bring with them more challenges. A point many of those who argue against immigration have noted. Bartlett’s report revealed population growth would drive up home prices and affordability in the short-term, but it could be managed. 

“The federal government must address this in its immigration policy,” Bartlett wrote in his report, “particularly regarding non‑permanent residents. It must marry immigration policy with immediate action to increase the housing supply.”

Whether or not the federal government will heed this advice is unknown. So far Trudeau and his ministers have done little to address the growing housing crises in the country, though it should be noted provincial and municipal governments hold some responsibility.