Canada’s food supply is heading for big problems

Canada is often thought of as a land of plenty with enough agricultural space to feed its population and then some. But the country’s food supply is a lot more fragile than most realize and it is becoming increasingly threatened for reasons you might not even know. 

Lettuce is a staple on most Canadian tables but over the latter half of 2022 and well into the new year the product has skyrocketed in price. In March 2023, prices started rising as a flood in California’s Salinas Valley earlier in the year delayed the growing seasons. 

It’s important to understand that when the weather turns cold in Canada, production of some of the country’s most important vegetables shifts south—and in the case of most lettuces imported—that means a shift to the Salinas Valley according to CTV News. 

However, this area of California has become more prone to extreme weather effects as climate change alters our world. For example, the fall growing season of the Salinas Valley saw the area’s lettuce crops seriously affected by some kind of disease. 

CTV News noted that the disease created severe lettuce shortages and the consequences of the problem rippled through Canadian society as it led to consistently high prices at stores and groceries throughout the country. 

"Basically, we are setting up for another demand-exceeds-supply market driving up prices as we experienced last October, November, and December," explained the Vice President of Operations at California’s Markon Cooperative to CTV News. 

Shaw went on to add that he expected lettuce to have four to six weeks of limited supply, and his analysis revealed one of the biggest problems facing the country’s food system—not enough is being produced at home to ensure adequate supplies. 

According to the Toronto Star, roughly three-quarters of all fresh fruits and vegetables in Canadian supermarkets are imported from abroad, and most of those foods come from California—which means when California suffers weather problems Canadians will too. 

“I don’t want to be, you know, doomsaying, but I mean, we are currently depending for almost all of our fruits and vegetables on one small geographic region, which is currently in a drought,” University of Guelph’s Evan Fraser told the Toronto Star.

"And that drought is expected by all estimations to probably be worse over the next 10 years,” Fraser continued, adding that the situation could prove problematic for Canada. 

Fraser explained that if California can’t continue to produce food exports at the levels it had in the previous twenty years then prices in Canada would continue to get higher and it would lead to major periods of disruption in the country. 

The Toronto Star noted Canada’s farmers are already starting to adapt to the changing supply situation and have begun producing more fresh vegetables at home. But there are problems that prevent homegrown products from becoming our new replacement, one of which is weather and another a lack of support from the government. 

“We used to be way more self-reliant in fresh fruits and vegetables—we produced a lot more of what we consumed domestically,” York University Professor Rod MacRae said. 

“Since World War Two, all that has seriously deteriorated, largely because there’s very limited policy supports for it compared to, say, the grain or the animal sectors,” MacRae added. 

The numbers of just how much Canada imports are staggering. For example, the Toronto Star reported Canada grew 103,000 metric tons of lettuce but we imported two and a half times that amount. The numbers are similarly worrying for products like broccoli, cauliflower, and spinach. 

Unfortunately, there really isn’t a good solution to the problem. Experts note California will never stop producing what Canada needs but they might not be able to sell it at a price Canadians can afford, leaving the country in a precarious predicament. 

“Climate change isn’t going to destroy agriculture,” Evan Fraser explained, “but it is going to make food harder and more expensive to produce.” The Government of Canada may need to come up with some creative solutions to solve the problem…