Could Trump actually beat Biden in 2024?

Polling approval numbers don't always tell the full story of an incumbent president's chances of reelection but the most recent drops in Joe Biden's numbers just might indicate he could face a bigger problem when he goes head-to-head with Donald Trump in 2024.

Barring some unforeseen black swan event, Trump will most likely win the Republican Party's 2024 presidential nomination after his primary wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, and that doesn't bode well for Biden based on his recent polling.

As of January 26th, FiveThirtyEight reported that Biden had an approval rating among the American public of just 39.1% whereas his disapproval rating reached 55.5%. This is bad news for the current president if he is hoping to win a second term in November.

NPR's Ron Evling noted in a January 27th report that Gallup put Biden's approval rating at 37% and that such a rating was worrying, writing that "since modern polling began, the first-term presidents who were unable to reach 50% approval at any point within a year of their next Election Day have not won a new term."

Luckily, Gallup polling in 2021 showed that Biden enjoyed a 57% approval rating highpoint from January 21st to February 2nd and in April 2021. But it is the President's most recent polling in head-to-head matchups against Trump that should worry him and his campaign team.

For example, a recent nationwide poll of 1,250 American adults conducted by Reuters and Ipsos that was published by the British news organization on January 25th showed Trump was leading Biden 40% to 34%. This was a gain from Trump from similar polling in the previous month.

Big worries about whether or not Biden could beat Trump in a rematch of 2020 in 2024 first began to make the rounds after several concerning polls in September 2023 began to show that Trump had a very good shot at beating Biden in 2024. One of these polls came from CNN.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS and revealed Biden could lose his bid for reelection since 46 percent of registered voters thought any Republican nominee would be better than Biden in 2024.

There was no clear leader in the matchup between Biden and Trump at that time, but the finding that 46% of people favored whoever Biden's GOP rival would have kicked off a wave of concern that has only grown since then. The CNN poll also revealed a number of other worrying facts. 

A hypothetical matchup between Biden and the former Governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley broke in favor of the GOP nominee by six points according to the poll's results 

The CNN Poll also revealed a number of worrying signs for the president as the country moves closer to election season with the biggest concern being Biden’s advanced age. 

Nearly three-quarters of respondents said they were seriously concerned about Biden’s age with 73% noting they thought it might negatively affect physical and mental abilities, this is a problem that's only got worse for Biden. 

A larger percentage (76%) said Biden’s age would affect his ability to serve his full term in office while 68% said it would affect his ability to understand generational concerns. 

CNN's findings tracked with several previous polls that found Americans were very concerned over Biden’s age. In August 2023, polling from The Wall Street Journal found that 73% of people said they thought the phrase “too old to run for office” best described the president. 

Another August poll from the Associated Press and NORC found that 77% of Americans and 69% of Democrats thought Biden was too old for a second term in office, though it is important to note that 82% of Democrats still said that they would vote for him if he ran. 

Biden’s approval rating also took a major hit in the September 2023 poll from CNN with only 39% of people saying they approved of the job the president and his administration were doing. 

Over a majority of respondents (58%) said the president’s policies had made economic conditions worse in the United States, a problem that will affect Biden’s electability. 

Roughly three-quarters of those surveyed (70%) also said the country was doing poorly and 51% noted the government should be doing more to solve the country’s problems. 

“These numbers are not good, and they’re consistent with most of the other polling that we’ve seen,” Barack Obama’s former campaign strategist David Axelrod said on CNN at the time. 

“The country is in a sour mood,” Axelrod added. “He’s not getting credit for what I think is a fairly substantial list of achievements.”

Axelrod went on to explain that if Biden were facing a referendum at that time he would be in “deep deep trouble” and added a difficult path stood ahead of Biden and his White House.

Democrats also seemed worried about how Biden would perform in the 2024 election and 67% said the party should choose a different nominee, a number CNN reported was up from the 54% of Democrats who thought they should have a different nominee in March. 

Biden was 80 years old at the time the CNN poll was taken and, if he was reelected in 2024, would end his second term in office at the age of 86. Should he pass away in office, or be deemed unfit to perform his duties, the presidency would pass to his vice-president: Kamala Harris.