What's going on with military recruitment levels in the United States?

The U.S. Marine Corps and Space Force were expected to achieve their recruitment goals in 2023 but the U.S. Army, Air Force, and Navy couldn't hit what each service said it needed to recruit last year. What happened and why is far more complicated than you would think.

The U.S. Army was expected to recruit 55,000 new soldiers in 2023 but missed the mark by troops 10,000, and the U.S. Air Force and Navy suffered from a similar fate. The Air Force expected a 10,000 airmen deficit and the Navy a 6,000 sailor deficit according to USA Facts.

One of the big reasons why recruitment in the United States is down is due to the fact that the country has far fewer applicants to draw from than in the past. A large majority of Americans today wouldn't meet many of the stringent requirements imposed by the various branches of service without a special waiver.

That’s because most Americans would be disqualified from joining the armed forces due to a variety of factors. In 2020, the Pentagon’s Qualified Military Available Study found that a shocking 77% of Americans were ineligible for service because of four major reasons. 

Looking at the country’s youth between the ages of seventeen to twenty-four, the study found that 11% would be disqualified for service due to being overweight while another 8% would be ineligible to join the military due to their drug use. 

Mental or physical health issues disqualified a further 7% of potential recruits while just mental health issues alone made a further 4% ineligible. Having dependents, the wrong attitude, or conduct issues all disqualified a further 1% of recruits for each factor. 

In total, the combination of two or more of the factors already listed disqualified a further 44% of possible recruits in the age cohort. This left the country with just 23% of youths between the ages of seventeen to twenty-four available to be recruited into the military. 

Of those youths who qualified for military service, 11% were enrolled in college, leaving a total of 12% who were qualified and deemed available for military service. This was a worrying number and statistics from the report showed it decreased from prior investigations into the country's recruitment possibilities.  

The report noted that the number of available recruits that could join the military without a waiver had decreased from the previous estimate of 29% with the largest increases in disqualifications coming in the category of mental and physical health. 

Concern over the shrinking number of available recruits has been a recurring theme in recent years with political leaders and officials from various branches of the services sounding the alarm on what’s become one of the biggest crises facing the nation’s security. 

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Military Personnel Policy Stephanie Miller told the Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee on September 20th, 2022 that her department was projecting it would miss its recruitment targets for the fiscal year. 

Photo Credit: Department of Defense, Lisa Ferdinando, DOD

“The Department anticipates we will collectively miss our recruiting mission despite accessing more than 170,000 remarkable young men and women,” Miller stated.

“This constitutes an unprecedented mission gap and is reason for concern.” Miller continued. But just how bad is the situation and what does it mean for the country's armed forces?

Bloomberg Government reported in a 2022 article that the military was facing the worst recruitment hurdles the services had seen in 50 years. For example, the outlet noted that despite the U.S. Army lowering its recruitment goals, it still can’t meet its numbers. 

“The largest military service is falling more than 10,000 soldiers short this year, and is projecting a gap of at least 21,000 active-duty troops in 2023,” Bloomberg’s Roxana Tiron wrote in her report—and things weren’t much better for the other five services. 

In 2022, the Army missed its recruitment goal by 15,000 soldiers, a massive 25% hit from the 60,000 troops the service wanted. The U.S. Air Force and Navy met their active duty recruitment goals. However, both missed their reserve goals according to Military News. 

The United States depends on a strong volunteer force in order “to carry out its foreign policy and defend strategic interest according to Roxana Tiron. However, the Bloomberg reporter noted military leaders often say the services are only as good as their members. 

“With operations shifting to the realms of cyber, artificial intelligence, and hypersonic weapons, and China and Russia challenging U.S. leadership globally, the lack of qualified recruits could become a fundamental national security handicap,” Tiron added. 

In April 2023, Military Times reported the Army, Navy, and Air Force were preparing to miss their recruitment goals while the Marine Corps said it would meet its goals and the Space Force’s numbers depended on the willingness of other branches to transfer personnel. 

In December 2023, the Department of Defense reported that the country's military services missed their recruiting goals by 41,000, a number that the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Personal and Readiness Ashish Vazirani was worried about.

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Special Operation Command News Service, Public Domain

"That number understates the challenge before us as the services lowered [their] end-strength goals in recent years, in part because of the difficult recruiting environment," Vazirani said. "The all-volunteer force faces one of its greatest challenges since inception,"

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By United States Department of Defense, Public Domain

However, after a difficult year, things are looking up for the various branches of service. Each is trying out new ways to recruit from the 23% of young people between the ages of 17 and 24 that the Department of Defense says qualify to join the military.

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Rick Emert, CC0

"You're seeing the services look at many different types of ways to get out and engage with today's youth, as far as highlighting the opportunities that military service and the benefits that it can provide," Pentagon Press Secretary Major General Pat Ryder said during a December 21st press conference in 2023.