Four ways the war in Ukraine could end

It’s been two years since Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, and the war is no closer to ending today than it was in the weeks after Russian troops and equipment began pouring into Ukraine. 

The last two years have bore witness to fighting at a scale the world has not seen since the World Wars, as well as thousands of war crimes, dead civilians, and destroyed lives. How the war will end is still unknown.  

Business Insider explored four ways in which the Russian invasion of Ukraine could be brought to an end based on a February 14th press briefing from experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Let’s look at the possibilities. 

Ukraine holding out is the scenario that most Western officials are hoping for and if the country can draw Russia into a long war that Moscow eventually loses. But such a scenario would be dependent on help. 

Ukraine is currently dependent on security and financial aid from the United States and its allies across the world. However, without help, it is likely that Kyiv won’t be able to hold off Russia's coming offensives in 2024. 

Max Bergmann of CSIS believes that if Ukraine continues to receive security and financial help from its partners, like the US $60 billion dollar package currently working its way through Congress, then Ukraine can hold out.

"If that funding is passed, I have no doubt that Ukraine will be able to completely absorb the Russian offensive that is going on in 2024," Bergmann said during a February 14th briefing. "In fact, I would be quite optimistic about Ukraine's potential in 2025."

A Russian victory is most likely what will happen if Ukraine's partners and allies are not willing to continue backing the country up financially and militarily. Anything is possible in a war of attrition according to Eliot A. Cohen. 

"In a war of attrition, lines can break if the attrited side is depleted enough. So I think that passing the assistance is really critical," Cohen explained But he also explained how a lack of help could lead to Russia’s victory. 

Cohen used World War I as an analogy to help his audience understand how quickly a state at war can collapse when fighting an attritional war. "Nobody expected the war to end in November 1918,” Cohen explained. 

“In September, even into early October, people [were] planning for the campaigns of 1919. And there was not just one collapse, but a set of collapses. I think something similar might happen in this case,” Cohen added. 

A peace deal is a hopeful possibility but it's one that isn’t likely to happen unless Russia or Ukraine relaxes their demands. In November 2023, Ukraine put out a 10-point peace plan that included conditions Russia would not accept. 

For example, the Kyiv Post noted the peace plan's fifth point included a reversion to Ukraine's 1991 borders, a commitment Russia isn’t likely to adhere to unless it outright lost the war. Point seven also outlines war crimes tribunals to prosecute Russian war crimes.

In December 2023, Putin vowed at an end of year press conference there would be no peace until the “denazification” and demilitarization of Ukraine was secured. Kyiv would also need to be a neutral country according to The Hill’s Reporting. 

The final way the conflict in Ukraine could end is nuclear war. Officials in Russia like Putin and Dmitry Medvedev have made several nuclear threats ever since the conflict began, and it is a possibility that needs to be considered. 

"What would that spell for Vladimir Putin's regime? I think the US has already communicated pretty forcefully that all bets are off if Russia were to use nuclear weapons," CSIS Senior Vice President Seth Jones explained.