Investigations find Russian troop counts are highly inaccurate

A recent collaborative investigation by the independent Russian news agency Important Stories and the Conflict Intelligence Team suggests that Russia may have overstated the size of its armed forces by as much as one-and-a-half times.

Published on August 1st, the investigation claims the official number of contract soldiers announced by the Russian Defense Ministry in December 2023 was not the 640,000 as was cited by the ministry but rather much lower. 

Using information from Russia’s federal budget expenditures, Important Stories and the Conflict Intelligence Team revealed that only 426,000 Russians received their one-time payment for signing a contract between the autumn of 2022 and April 2024. 

The Kyiv Independent reported on the story and noted that the investigation discovered there was a discrepancy of 214,000 soldiers missing from the number of contract troops cited by the Russian Ministry of Defense and the soldiers paid a contract bonus. 

The investigation also cited an unnamed source who said that some regions of Russia were not meeting their recruitment targets. The source explained several areas of the country were only hitting 50 to 60% of their recruitment targets. 

If the reporting proves true, it could explain why Vladimir Putin ordered a major increase in the one-time payment that soldiers receive when they sign a new contract to fight in Ukraine, which was 195,000 rubles or roughly $2280 dollars as of the exchange rate on August 6th. 

According to Bloomberg News, Putin doubled the bonus soldiers receive when they sign a new contract to fight in Ukraine, bringing the total amount to 400,000 rubles or roughly $4,600 according to the American news outlet. 

“Putin also called on regional authorities to match the federal government payment, which was previously set at 195,000 rubles,” Bloomberg News added, noting that the payments could signal that Russia is struggling to meet its recruitment numbers. 

The news of the new bonus increase comes at a time when Russia is suffering heavy losses as it continues its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to the latest data from the Ukraine General Staff, Moscow has suffered nearly 600,000 casualties since February 2022. 

As of August 6th, the Ukrainian General Staff estimates Russia has suffered 585,145 losses since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine. This is a staggering number that is unmatched in the history of post-World War warfare. 

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