Is Florida a cursed state or key factor in the US presidential elections?

Known for its sunny beaches and postcard settings, Florida, often nicknamed the 'Sunshine State', could once again play a special role in the 2024 US presidential election.

In the past, this state has frequently appeared as a key factor in national elections. But Florida also seems stricken with a curse....

Florida has once again made headlines with the nomination of the Republican candidate for next year's election. State Governor, the very conservative Ron DeSantis has officially entered the race.

Faced with the fiasco of Donald Trump-backed MAGA candidates in the 2022 midterm elections, DeSantis tried to present himself as the alternative to the former president.

But Trump, himself settled in Florida for several years, has not said his last word and the latest polls now indicate that he is the favorite to represent a very right-wing Republican Party in 2024.

With about 20% of the party's primary voting intentions against 50% for Trump, DeSantis is struggling to establish himself as the next generation who would turn the page on Trumpism. Is he already defeated in the conquest of Republican opinion?

The governor of the Sunshine State announced his candidacy in on Twitter along with his support Elon Musk, who bought this social network last year.

But a series of bugs during the announcement sparked ridicule, earning DeSantis the nickname “DeSaster” – a contraction of his name and the word “disaster”.

According to 'Slate', his "inability to deploy a program that goes beyond the denunciation of "wokism" and health policies during the pandemic" makes him a candidate with questionable electoral potential.

Beyond his own weaknesses, DeSantis also seems to be affected by a curse that strikes Florida: no politician from this state has ever been elected president of the United States in history.

Worse: the Sunshine State has never succeeded in imposing a candidate in nearly two centuries of presence within the United States - neither among the Democrats nor among the Republicans.

By comparison, Texas, which joined the Union nine months after Florida, has already sent three representatives to the White House – and even four counting state native Dwight Eisenhower.

The most populous state in the country, California has had two presidents from its territory: Herbert Hoover and Ronald Reagan.

Even Hawaii, which has only been part of the United States since 1959, did better with the election of Barack Obama in 2008.

However, several attempts have been made. In 2016, state governor Jeb Bush (son and brother of the two former presidents) and Marco Rubio (pictured) both tried their luck in the Republican primary, only to be swept aside by Donald Trump.

According to 'Politico', Florida also suffers from being “above all, it is a place where people go to escape, to play (and misbehave). And that deliberate unseriousness has, like it or not, settled upon its politicians who don’t get the same respect as those from states whose identities are built around more traditional industries.”

The balance sheet is in any case clear: the third most populous American state after California and Texas, Florida is the only one of the top 10 to have never been represented at the top of the federal state, as noted 'Politico'.

But who do Florida residents vote for? This state is one of the swing states, those which are not always dominated by the same party and which therefore have a decisive influence in national elections.

During the second half of the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century, Florida was overwhelmingly Democratic, voting only once for the Republican presidential candidate (Herbert Hoover in 1928).

But the situation has evolved since then: during the presidential elections which took place between 1960 and 2020, voters preferred the Republican candidate 11 times, versus just five for the Democratic candidate.

Over the same period, Florida has also had the particularity of rarely being wrong: the candidate who comes out on top has always been elected at the national level – except in 1960, 1992 and 2020.

Florida also made headlines in 2000. The very narrow vote gap between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush led to recounts and a court ruling in favor of the latter.

At the end of this electoral imbroglio, Florida was therefore the key factor in the election of Bush junior. Will it once again be a decisive state with a reliable outcome in 2024, or will the curse continue to strike?