Support for Trudeau and the Liberals just hit another low

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada have hit another low in terms of support according to exclusive polling shared with the Toronto Star by the Ottawa-based market research firm Abacus Data.

Survey data from 1,500 Canadians that was conducted between January 2nd and the 9th found that a stunning 58% of those polled disapproved of the current federal government.

“If the Liberals were hoping that 2024 would start with some positive mood and maybe a shift in public perception, I don't see any evidence of that yet,” Abacus Data CEO David Coletto said.

“In fact, I continue to see a worsening,” Coletto continued. Overall, 29% of those polled said that they would vote for the Liberals if the election were held today opposed to 37% who would choose the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) and 19% who would pick the New Democratic Party (NDP).

Toronto Star reporter Raisa Patel noted that the polling results were the "grimmest outlook yet for the Trudeau Liberals since they ascended to power." However, Trudeau's current situation is quite similar to the situation that he was facing nearly six months ago at the end of August 2023.

The Conservative Party had gained serious traction over Justin Trudeau and the Liberals over the summer according to the polling data from Nanos Research that showed the Conservatives were edging out the Liberals. 

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre pushed his party past Trudeau by a very small margin in August and captured 33.1% of the vote while the Liberals slumped to 29.7% according to CTV News' reporting on the data from Nanos Research.  

Jagmeet Singh’s NDP had captured 21.7 percent of the total vote but it would have likely been enough to propel Canada toward another Liberal minority government if the election had been held at the end of summer. 

CTV News noted that the gap between Poilievre and Trudeau was narrower than it had been earlier in August when the Conservative leader enjoyed a nearly ten-point lead over Trudeau. 

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However, the lead still conformed to the long-term trend pollsters had been seeing since February 2023, namely that Trudeau and his Liberals would only earn second place if an election were held at that time. 

“Right now we're seeing a trend that has held up for a number of months,” Founder and Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Researcher Nik Nanos explained to CTV News. 

Nanos went on to note that the Conservatives had had a clear advantage in the margin of error before commenting that the Liberals could have a difficult year ahead if the lead firmed up, something that appears to have happened according to the latest January 2024 results from Abacus Data. 

“I think for the Liberals, they’ve got to figure out how to disrupt this trend line, because if it firms up, it's going to make for a very tough year,” Nanos told CTV News about what might lay ahead of the Liberals and Trudeau in August.

The reasons behind the burgeoning Conservative lead in the summer were likely related to the economy according to Nanos, but the deepening housing crisis and cost of living were two other problems that shouldn't have been ignored at the time. 

Poilievre scored major points with Canadian voters who were tired of housing costs in the country and this issue in particular was dominating each party’s platforms at the time. 

Unfortunately for the Liberals, Poilievre had a leg up on Trudeau since the Conservative leader could make the types of promises that Canadians wanted to hear whereas Trudeau was limited to promoting the actions he'd taken during his time in office. 

In August, Poilievre vowed to create more housing if elected to office and he said he planned to start by unloading 6,000 federal buildings and incentivizing cities according to a separate CTV News report. 

"I'm going to link the number of dollars big cities get for infrastructure to the number of homes that actually get completed," Poilievre said in an August 24th interview on Newstalk 580 CFRA's 'The Morning Rush with Bill Carroll' quoted by CTV News. 

"I will require every big city in Canada [to] boost building permits by 15 percent per year or they will lose federal grants. Those that beat the 15 percent target will get a building bonus." Poilievre added.

An August 25th survey from Abacus Data found the Conservatives were leading the Liberals by 12 points with 38% of votes while a staggering 57% of respondents said they thought Trudeau should step down with only 27% saying he should run again. 

The recent polling from Abacus Data on Trudeau's worrying situation that was shared with the Toronto Star was also mirrored by recent polling from Nanos Research that showed the Conservatives held a massive lead over the Liberals as of January 9th.

Weekly tracking of 1,000 Canadians showed that the Conservatives held double digits over the Liberals with 38% support while the Liberals only captured 29% support whereas the NDP garnered 21%. Nanos Research found Canadians were most worried about inflation, jobs, and the economy.