Johnson faces no-win situation with MAGA ready to revolt

House Speaker Mike Johnson is in big trouble. Facing down the threat of a government shutdown, Johnson has been forced to navigate the looming crisis within the bounds of two opposing forces that seem irreconcilable. 

Things wouldn’t be so bad for Johnson if his legacy and position as House Speaker weren't on the line. However, that isn’t the case. Hard-right Republicans haven't been subtle about their desire to oust Johnson if he messes up. 

For example, the ever-delightful Marjorie Taylor Greene told Maria Bartimeo she had no problem kicking Johnson to the curb if he cut a deal with Democrats to pass legislation on Ukraine aid during an appearance on Bartimeo’s Fox News Sunday morning show. 

“I told Speaker Johnson if he made that deal in exchange for $60bn for Ukraine, I would vacate the chair,” the Georgia congresswoman stated. “And I still stand by those words.” Greene’s comments likely aren’t a bluff either. 

The former House Speaker suffered a very similar fate in October 2023 when the House of Representatives voted to remove Kevin McCarthy from his speakership, though the choice was one led by Matt Gaetz and MAGA Republicans. 

McCarthy made the same mistake that Johnson is poised to make now. He cut a deal with the Democrats to keep the government running according to The Independent, and for that choice, he was kicked out of leadership. 

Johnson might well suffer the same fate as McCarthy if doesn’t play his cards right, and his unpopularity has been simmering for weeks according to remarks from Indiana's Republican representative Victoria Spatz. 

On January 12th, Spatz told Newsweek about what had been going on behind the scenes noting that “people here and there” had been seriously talking about pushing Johnson out of the House Speakership position. 

"Ultimately, it's up to us members to be able to pull the gun," Spartz said. "It's not even just the Speaker. We'll have to figure it out and be strong,” the Indiana congresswoman continued, adding Johnson needed to prove he could win. 

“He definitely inherited a difficult situation, so we'll judge the result,” Spartz added. But what would be considered a win in Johnson’s current position? Making a deal to avert a government shutdown might not be his winning ticket. 

The House Freedom Caucus in the far-right wing of the Republican party that Johnson is forced to keep happy and the group’s focus is on working towards fiscal responsibility in the United States. They want big cuts to the government. 

However, the House Freedom Caucus doesn’t seem to realize that the Democrats control the Senate, which means that a deal must be reached in order to keep the government funded. This puts Johnson in a lose-lose situation. 

Washington Post columnists Marianna Sotomayor and Leigh Ann Caldwell wrote in a recent article that Johson was now at a crossroads and the House Speaker was facing the critical point of his time in government leadership.

“Does he shun the small but vocal far-right faction in favor of governing and risk losing his speakership, or does he appease the hard-liners and shut down the government without concessions from Democrats?” the post journalist questioned.

“His attempts to please most members, while not turning his back on his conservative background, have left some lawmakers with the impression that Johnson remains too indecisive or naive for the job,” Sotomayor and Caldwell added.

No matter his decision, Johnson is likely to face blowback. But the House Speaker may have an ace up his sleeve that his predecessor did not: Democratic support. However, such help wouldn't come free according to The Hill. 

On January 13th, it was reported by The Hill’s Mike Ellis that a small group of Democrats would support Johnson if right-wing Republicans revolted against him but also reported that they would want a bigger voice in legislative proceedings. 

“Just like I told McCarthy: Talk to Hakeem, and there are some of us that can support you,” said Texas Representative Henry Cuellar, and he wasn’t alone in thinking that Democrats could come to Johnson’s aid to save his Speakership. 

“He would have to be more willing than Kevin McCarthy was to sit down with Hakeem Jeffries and have a conversation about what it would take for us to be helpful. Kevin said to pound sand. He didn’t want the help,” said Michigan’s Dan Kildee. 

“We wouldn’t be offering it as an act of charity,” Kildee continued. “We would say, ‘Look, if you need Democrats to govern, then you’re going to have to take Democratic input.’”

How the situation will play out has yet to be seen. But time is running out for a deal with the threat of a government shutdown just days away. What choices Johnson will make may end his Speakership...only time will tell.