The verdict of the people: do Americans believe Trump is guilty?

The jury of the Trump/Stormy Daniels hush money case is still deliberating, trying to reach a verdict. As we wait for their decision, we wonder, what does the average American think? Is Donald Trump guilty of the multiple criminal charges he faces, in addition to the hush money case?

In total Donald Trump is facing 88 criminal charges across four cases in federal and state court. However, even though he has not been convicted of anything yet, the polls indicate that most voters believe the former president has committed serious crimes. 

According to a new poll from the New York Times and Siena College, most voters in the United States now believe Trump has committed serious federal crimes. Whether or not this will come into play in November might be answerable. 

Fifty-three percent of people who indicated that they intended to vote in November also reported they thought the former president committed serious federal crimes while only thirty-nine percent said the opposite according to the polling. 

Nine percent of people noted they didn’t know how to answer the question but the more interesting result was in how party affiliation came into play among those who believed Trump had and had not committed serious federal crimes. 

Ninety percent of Democrats said that Trump had committed serious federal crimes but only seventeen percent of Republicans were also in this category. Independents were a real surprise with forty-nine percent joining the crime camp. 

Politico reported that the new poll came just days before jury selection was to begin for Trump in his New York ‘hush money’ criminal case. This is a historic event since it is the first a former president has ever gone to a criminal trial. 

The former president has been charged with falsifying business records to cover up his hush money payments to adult actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election. Trump denies the charges as a witch hunt, Politico reported. 

“The survey also showed President Joe Biden closing the gap between himself and Trump. Forty-six percent of voters backed Trump, while 45 percent chose Biden, with eight percent unsure or declining to say,” wrote Rolling Stone’s Peter Wade.

Whether or not the former president will be convicted of his charges in New York has yet to be seen but his lack of a conviction hasn’t stopped voters from making up their minds about Trump’s guilt or innocence in the hush money case. 

When asked about Trump’s hush money case, forty-six percent of poll respondents said the former president should be found guilty, thirty-seven percent reported he ought to be found innocent, and seventeen percent didn’t know how to answer

“A conviction in the Manhattan case could be particularly damaging for Trump among independents,” wrote Politico’s Myah Ward, who explained that recent polling showed independents would drop support for Trump if he was convicted of a crime. 

“It may not make or break his chances of returning to the White House, but it could greatly harm his standing with some voters,” Myah added. However, the polls do tell a different story about how damaging it could be for Trump. 

In February 2024, polling from Bloomberg and Morning Consult found that as many as fifty-three percent of voters in the seven key swing states needed to win the election would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a criminal offense. 

“The preponderance of polling out there shows that there is a chunk of Republican voters who say a felony conviction would be a bridge too far,” explained GOP strategist Dan Judy according to The Hill. 

“Does that mean that Donald Trump still gets 80 to 85 percent of Republican voters, rather than 90 or 95 percent? Probably. But that could easily be the election right there,” Judy added. 

Fifteen-five people would refuse to vote for the former president if he was sentenced to prison and the former communications director for the Republican National Committee noted a conviction alone was “absolutely a potential dealbreaker.”