Republicans may face big challenges in Ohio after recent election win

Ohio was once one of the most important swing states in the union until Donald Trump exploded onto the political scene. The Buckeye State has been reliably red since 2016 but a recent win in one red district could signal that change is coming. 

Republican State Senator Michael Rulli beat Democrat Michael Kripchak in Ohio’s 6th District in a special election on June 11th. But the circumstances of the win weren’t as astonishing as what the district's previous congressman was able to achieve. 

In January 2024, Bill Johnson resigned as Ohio’s 6th District Representative following a thirteen-year stint in the position. Johnson opted to become the president of Youngstown State University, leaving the seat open for the next candidate to fill. 

While the voters may have chosen Rulli he didn’t perform anywhere as well as Johnson, who Newsweek reported won the district by more than thirty points in his previous four elections. Rulli didn’t come close to that number. 

Rulli did carve out a big win over Kripchak with a ten-point victory. Rulli ended the night with 54.7% of the vote compared to Kripchak’s 45.3% but the Democrats were still able to close the gap between the two parties by a stunning 20 points.

“While this was a special election held in the summer, when turnout traditionally dips, the results could offer hope for Democrats looking to be competitive this fall in Ohio and neighboring Pennsylvania,” wrote Julie Carr Smyth of the Associated Press.

Kripchak—a veteran of the United States Air Force—seemed to understand the gravity of the vote and explained to the Associated Press in a written statement that the results of the election “have not diminished our spirit.”

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Dillguy9, Own Work, CC0

“Though historically a red district, our campaign outperformed expectations, proving the doubters wrong,” Kripchak added. He will get a second shot at Rulli on November 5th when the two will face off again to win the 6th District’s two-year term. 

Rulli’s win will only net the new congressman the remainder of Johnson’s term in office, though his response to the win was much less magnanimous than that of his opponent. “We knew the polls were going to be close, and the guy I ran against really worked.”

“He’s a really hard worker,” Rulli added. “But this is a blue-collar district, this is Bruce Springsteen, the forgotten man, ‘Joe Bag of Donuts.’ They don’t trust the Democrats and Republicans, and they look at the individual. And I’m really good at retail politics.”

How the election in Ohio’s 6th District will affect the rest of the state has yet to be seen, but as the Associated Press reported, it could be a harbinger of things to come for the Republicans. Yet Johnson’s uniqueness as a candidate should not be ignored. 

Johnson clearly had heavy support in the district as evidenced by his several wins that netted victory by more than 30 points. However, recent polling may show that the GOP and Trump have lost some ground in the formerly strongly red state. 

“Even though it didn’t result in a surprise upset, Democrats have reason to be heartened by the results. It’s the latest special election in which the party has performed well,” wrote The Hill’s Jared Gans about the special election. 

The latest findings from a June 11th Marist Poll showed Trump was leading Joe Biden 48% to 41%. That may seem like a great number for Trump but a Newsweek report noted the former president’s lead is his smallest in the state since November 2023.

“The poll is the first conducted in Ohio since Trump became the only former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime after the jury in his hush money trial found him guilty of 34 felony falsifying business records trial on May 30,” wrote Newsweek’s Ewen Palmer. 

“It remains to be seen if Ohio can return to being a bellwether state in November. While Trump is expected to easily retain Ohio again, the general race between Trump and Biden appears to be neck and neck with less than five months to go.” Ewen added. 

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