Russia changes tactics after important aircraft losses

On January 14th, Ukraine claimed that its air defense crews shot down two key Russian aircraft used for command and control on the battlefield. The move was believed to be a major blow to Moscow. Let’s look at what happened. 

One Beriev A-50 as well as an Ilyushin Il-22 were flying along the coast of the Sea of Azov in different areas when they were targeted by Ukrainian air defenses and later reported as destroyed by state media in Ukraine not long after the planes were shot down. 

RBC Ukraine reported that the A-50 was shot down immediately according to sources in the country’s defense forces. The Il-22 suffered the same fate as the A-50. However, the Il-22 managed to stay in the air and land in Russia. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Alexandr Shukhov, CC BY-SA 4.0

The Ukrainian news outlet released a recording from the crew of the Il-22 radioing out a distress signal. Forbes translated a portion of the signal and reported the crew radioed that they were “urgently requesting ambulance and fire crew.”

On January 15th, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhny confirmed the reports in a Telegram post: "I thank the Air Force for a perfectly planned and executed operation in the Pryazovia region," he wrote according to The Kyiv Independent. 

The UK Ministry of Defense assessed an A-50 had exploded and subsequently crashed into the Sea of Azov on January 14th, and noted that the targeting of the airplane on mission was a significant development in the conflict. 

“It is likely that Russia will now be forced to reconsider limiting the operational areas of its aircraft,” the defense ministry wrote in its January 17th update on the war in Ukraine. “The A-50 is critical to the Russian air surveillance picture over the battlespace.”

The A-50 was described as a “priority target” for Kyiv by Ukriaian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat according to BBC News. Justin Bronk is a specialist in air warfare and explained the importance of the plane’s value to the Russian war effort. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Mil.ru, CC BY 4.0

Bronk called the A-50 a “key command, control and surveillance platform" that allowed Russian air assets and surface-to-air missile systems with "long-range early warning and target information about Ukrainian low-flying aircraft.”

The loss of the A-50 is particularly damaging for Russia since it operates so few of the aircraft in its armed forces. The UK Ministry of Defense assessed that the Kremlin only had roughly eight airframes that could be used to cover its areas of operation.

Despite having eight airframes, defense ministry analysts assessed that “the increased stress on the remaining airframes coupled with the loss of the crew will likely constrain longer-term mission sustainability."

The UK Defense Ministry’s prediction regarding Moscow reconsidering the operation limit of its A-50 aircraft was also quite accurate since in the days that followed the attacks it appeared as if Russia was being far more cautious with its assets. 

In its January 19th update on the war in Ukraine, the UK Defense Ministry reported that Russia had begun operating another A-50 but the new plane appeared to be restricted to flying over Russian territory in the Krasnodar region. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons / Map of Russia - Krasnodar Krai, CC BY-SA 4.0

“This activity is highly likely indicative of a reduced risk appetite for the airframes and an attempt to preserve remaining A-50 MAINSTAY at a loss to its overall effectiveness over Ukraine,” the defense ministry explained. 

“Despite no official position from Russia on the loss of the MAINSTAY, this activity likely demonstrates a tacit Russian acknowledgment of a successful targeting operation by the Ukrainians against a high-value air asset,” the ministry continued. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By ArmyInform, CC BY 4.0

The Defense Ministry added that if the destruction of the A-50 was an accident then Russia likely wouldn’t have restricted the activity of its second plane to fly over its territory, meaning the Ukrainians likely did score another big win.