Russia changes tactics as it comes closer to capturing key Ukrainian city

The Russian Armed Forces are adjusting the tactics being used to assault the Ukrainian fortress city of Avdiivka according to a report from the general in charge of the country’s defense in the area. But can Ukraine withstand the change?

Avdiivka has been the target of Russian aggression since a new offensive to capture the important Ukrainian fortress city was launched on October 10th. Since then, each side has suffered terrible soldier and equipment casualties. 

Current Russian casualty figures for the battle are unknown. But in mid-December, reporting from Forbes on numbers released by the United States put Russia’s dead and wounded at roughly 13,000 over the first two months of fighting. 

The number of troops lost in Avdiivka is almost certainly higher than it was following the first two months of fighting, and part of the reason why losses have been so high is due to the tactic Russian forces adopted after their initial assaults. 

The Institute for the Study of War reported in mid-December that Russia “largely shifted from mechanized to mass infantry-led assaults near Avdiivka in order to conserve armored vehicles following the first two waves of assaults on the settlement.”

Satellite imagery of the battlefield taken between October 10th and November 28th revealed that the Russian Armed Forces had lost 211 vehicles near Avdiivka and Frontelligence noted 50% of those losses occurred in the first 3 weeks of Russia’s attack. 

Russian infantry has been at the forefront of the assaults on Avdiivka since the Kremlin changed its tactics but it seems recent advances made by Russia against the city have led to a return to armored attacks as the battle passes its 5-month mark. 

On February 11th, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Tavriia Operational Strategic Group, wrote in a situation update on Telegram that Moscow was "increasingly adding armored groups to assault infantry groups.”

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By President Of Ukraine from Україна, CC0

Newsweek translated Tarnavskyi’s comments and noted that the brigadier general said Russia had lost 428 soldiers as well 25 units of military equipment in its latest assault on the city of Avdiivka and Ukrainian forces repelled 33 attacks. 

It is unclear what the shift in Russian tactics means but it could indicate that Moscow has made enough progress around the city that its military commanders feel safe enough to bring their armored units back into the fold of battle. 

Russia has made significant progress in its campaign to capture Avdiivka in the last 14 days. On February 8th, Politico reported that the situation around the embattled city was critical, and things have only gotten worse since then. 

One sign that things are likely dire is that Kyiv has allegedly sent its 3rd Assault Brigade to reinforce the city according to Forbes, which reported the brigade was Ukraine's only ground combat force in reserve in Eastern Ukraine at this time. 

“For four months, the Avdiivka garrison may have killed 10 Russians for every soldier it lost,” Forbes David Axe explained, adding that the “encirclement by the Russian field armies threatens to erase that attritional advantage.”

Whether or not Avdiivka will be able to hold out against Russian forces is still unknown, but losing the city could prove to be a big strategic and political win for Vladimir Putin at a time when both are sorely needed by the Russian President. 

Avdiivka had a prewar population of over 30,000 and it has held out against the Russian invasion of Ukraine since it was recaptured from separatist forces in 2014. Since then, it has become a fortress and bulwark against Russia’s invasion. 

Reuters explained in a February 8th report that Avdiivka is seen as a “gateway” to the Russian-held Donetsk City, and seizing it from the Ukrainians could boost the morale of Russian troops while hurting the morale of Ukrainians. 

However, more importantly, Avdiivka is seen by both sides as the key to controlling the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This has been a critical goal of the Kremlin ever since it annexed the regions from Ukrainian in September 2022.