Russia is losing one of its closest allies to one of its worst enemies

Tensions between Russia and one of its closest allies have reached a breaking point after a visit from a top Ukrainian diplomat earned a tough rebuke from Moscow. Here’s why Armenia is moving away from its former closest ally towards Ukraine and the West.

Russia and Armenia were once inseparable allies. The two former Soviet republics have had a strong relationship for decades but those close ties have grown increasingly strained after Azerbaijan seized Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a disputed territory between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the roots of which can be tied back to the Soviet Union according to the Council on Foreign Relations. But this century-old conflict has had big ramifications for Russia this year.

The crux of the issue has been ethnic strife and land claims that have put the region in a state of war more than once since it was established in the 1920s. Nagorno-Karabakh is home to mostly Armenians but is located within Azerbaijan’s borders. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Aivazovsky

Major issues were kept in check by Soviet authorities for most of the region's history, but when the union collapsed in the 1990s, fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan quickly erupted following the Nagorno-Karabakh declaration of independence. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Armdesant

The resulting war led to the deaths of roughly 30,000 people and even more refugees. A ceasefire was brokered by Russia in 1994 which led to Nagorno-Karabakh becoming a de facto independent, but there has been intermittent clashing since. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Ilgar Jafarov - Own work, CC BY 3.0,

Cross-border attacks like the ones that occurred in September 2020 became a hallmark of the conflict. The fighting in 2020 turned into a full-blown war and was only ended by a Russian-brokered deal two months after it began, a situation that revealed why Russia was such an important ally for Armenia.  

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Javid Nabizade - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0

Russia and its military might have always been in Armenia’s corner, and as a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Kremlin’s version of NATO, Armenia has had a powerful friend on the international stage help its cause. 

However, the nature of Armenia and Russia’s close relationship began to change in the wake of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia’s stunning losses on the battlefield ruined its global military influence and provided Azerbaijan with an opportunity.

“Azerbaijan quickly grasped that Moscow could no longer play a dominant role in the region,” explained Olesya Vartanyan of Foreign Affairs. This led Azerbaijan’s leaders to launch an attack that took over full control of Nagorno-Karabakh. 

“Over the course of several months in 2022, Azerbaijani troops took over territory not only inside Nagorno-Karabakh but also on the Armenian side of the border with Azerbaijan,” Vartanyan added, which is a serious problem. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Mahammad Turkman - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0

Azerbaijan’s military is a far more powerful force than the military forces of Armenia, and now the more powerful army has established itself in an advantageous position all along the border with its foe. This is a recipe for disaster. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Sevda Babayeva - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0

It’s important to note that Russia did little to stop Azerbaijan’s assault against Armenia, a situation which has led Armenia’s leaders to reach out to the West as it searches for allies to deter a future war with Azerbaijan. 

“Armenia has every reason to be worried,” Vartanyan wrote, explaining that Azerbaijan could quickly win a future fight and Armenia would be able to do little to stop it beyond surrendering and accepting whatever terms Azerbaijan proposed. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Aziz Karimov

On September 24th, following Azerbaijan's take over of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared that Armenia’s alliance with Russia was “ineffective.”

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0

“The systems of external security in which Armenia is involved are ineffective when it comes to the protection of our security and Armenia's national interest," Pashinyan said during an address to the Armenian nation according to Newsweek.

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0,

A flurry of diplomatic activity between Armenia and other possible allies has followed in the wake of Nagorno-Karabakh’s takeover and this activity culminated in an interesting visit from Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on December 13th. 

"My Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan and I met to discuss the advancement of Ukraine-Armenia dialogue for the benefit of our peoples," Kuleba explained in a statement. 

"Ukraine stands for peace in the South Caucasus, based on respect for the UN Charter and international law, as well as the development of regional trade and cultural projects spanning the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea," Kuleba added. 

Newsweek’s Aila Slisco reported that Armenia and Ukraine are working to advance their relationship, something that garnered a strong response from Russia’s Foreign Ministry, which blamed Armenia for its recent foreign policy failures. 

"We are convinced that the Yerevan leadership is making a massive mistake by deliberately trying to destroy Armenia's multi-faceted and centuries-old ties with Russia while making the country hostage to the geopolitical games of the West," the statement said.

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By U.S. Department of State from the United States

The move has come as a difficult blow to Moscow and underscores the issues that Russia now faces on the international stage. One of Putin’s closest allies is now working to develop a relationship with one of its mortal enemies, which says a lot about Russia's international influence.