Did you know Russia will produce a lot more artillery shells than Ukraine and its allies this year?

Drones and their exploits on the frontlines of battlefields across Ukraine might be the new technology making daily headlines, but the conflict is still very much a war of artillery and Moscow is pulling ahead of Kyiv when it comes to shell production.

Russia is producing artillery shells at a far faster rate and for a much lower price per unit than all of Ukraine’s Western allies and partners combined according to a report from earlier in 2024. 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is well into its third year and it appears as if Russia has sorted out its artillery shell production problems if new estimates are to be believed. 

Production issues for Russia and Ukraine's allies have been a closely followed narrative of the war, which makes sense considering the importance of artillery on the battlefield. 

In February 2024, Time magazine reported that artillery had accounted for 80% of casualties on both sides of the conflict and revealed the staggering numbers of shells being fired. 

While rationing resources during the height of Ukraine’s shortages, the country’s armed forces were still firing roughly 2,000 shells a day while Russia was using about 10,000 rounds a day. 

The previous shell numbers may seem high but figures from the early war reported by CNN revealed Ukraine was firing upwards of 6,000 shells a day while Russian forces have fired as many as 60,000 during the peak of some of their barrages in 2023.  

The ability to funnel artillery ammunition to frontline troops has become one of the most important aspects of the war and it appears Moscow has taken a big lead in production. 

Artillery shell production has been slowly shifting in Moscow’s favor since Vladimir Putin shifted Russia towards a war economy and a report in March 2024 revealed the differences in shell production between Russia and Ukraine plus Kyiv's allies. 

CNN reported that NATO intelligence estimates calculated Russia was making 250,000 artillery shells a month for a total of 3 million shells a year. Ukraine and its allies reportedly weren't keeping up with such a high production number. 

NATO intelligence revealed that the collective capacity of the United States and Europe could only generate roughly 1.2 million artillery shells annually to ship to the Ukirianians. 

“What we are in now is a production war,” a senior NATO official explained to CNN. “The outcome in Ukraine depends on how each side is equipped to conduct this war.”

However, it seems the disparity may have gotten even worse according to a report from the British consulting firm Bain & Company which put Russian production much higher.

Sky News reported on the figures from Bain & Company, which estimated that Russia was set to produce 4.5 million shells in 2024 compared to the West’s collective 1.3 million. 

Not only is Russia producing more artillery shells than all of Ukraine’s allies collectively, but Moscow can also do it at a far cheaper cost per unit than shells being manufactured in the West. 

The average cost of production for a NATO standard 155mm shell is roughly $4,000 whereas the average production cost per unit cost of a Russian 152mm shell is around $1,000.

“Artillery is only one of many munition shortfalls faced by Ukraine,” explained Sky News’ Deborah Haynes. The current shell disparity will only make the war worse for Ukraine. 

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