Russia just lost a bunch of tanks in its failed assault on Avdiivka

The Russian Armed Forces have gone on the attack in Ukraine but what appeared to be a carefully crafted strategy to capture the long-contested city of Avdiivka in Donetsk. But things haven’t gone to plan and Moscow has suffered heavy losses. 

Russia spent most of the previous year trying to push Ukrainian forces out of Avdiivka in what became a months-long back-and-forth with little success. Now Moscow is trying its luck again amid a lack of Russian attacks but it's gone terribly wrong. 

Ukrainian military officials have claimed that their armed forces killed thousands of Russian troops and destroyed hundreds of pieces of equipment over several days. One spokesperson for Ukraine’s Tavriisk Group explained the situation. 

"We've destroyed a lot of their equipment, so now the enemy continues to push forward with infantry," Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun said according to a Newsweek report. "These can also be termed 'meat grinder assaults’” the colonel continued. 

Shtupun claimed that over 3000 Russian soldiers had been killed attacking Avdiivka and more than 300 pieces of military equipment were also destroyed since Russia started its assaults on October 9th. Ukraine has repelled roughly 15 attacks. 

“The Russians should have realized this a long time ago,” Colonel Dymtro Lysyuk of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade told The Guardian. “They have not managed to achieve even tactical success.”

Colonel Lysyuk also claimed that the Russians wanted to capture the rest of Donetsk all the way to the end of its administrative borders by the end of 2023. But he said that it would not happen based on the scale of the losses Russia has suffered. 

“They want to take it by the end of 2023. They won’t make it,” the colonel said before he added: “Given the scale of their losses, this is a very obvious defeat.” Losses during the renewed battle for Avdiivka have been very bad for Russian forces

Chief among the losses suffered by Moscow in their attack has been a large number of Russian tanks. At least 36 were destroyed within the first twenty-four hours of the initial attack and that number has risen substantially since October 9th.

On October 15th, The Guardian’s Luke Harding reported that Russia had lost 102 tanks in its various attacks on Avdiivka. This number is likely to continue to rise as the Kremlin continues to fail at achieving any tactical successes in the area.   

Forbes staff writer David Axe has been providing in-depth coverage of the ongoing war in Ukraine and tracked the early losses of Russia’s first 34 tanks, noting that everything from the country’s obsolete T-62 models to its modern T-90s have been destroyed.

On October 15th, the Institute for the Study of War noted that Russia’s efforts to encircle Avdiivka would likely continue but added that Moscow’s assault force had "yet to make further gains amid a likely decreasing tempo of Russian operations in the area."

“Both Ukrainian military observers and Russian sources stated that Russian forces did not achieve their desired immediate breakthrough, and Russian forces faced initial high losses and a likely slower than anticipated rate of advance,” institute analysts added. 

Unfortunately, the Institute for the Study of War reported that the battle for Avdiivka will continue albeit at a lower tempo, and added the threat for Kyiv still remains.

Analysts wrote that the current reduction in fighting may just be a brief adjustment to the situation with attempts to encircle Avdiivka intensifying in the days to come. 

What this will mean for Russian equipment losses is still unknown but it is highly likely Ukraine will continue to knock out key Russian vehicles as Moscow attempts to achieve some kind of tactical win in the battle. 

"Russian forces are unlikely to make significant breakthroughs or cut off Ukrainian forces in the settlement in the near term, and potential advances at scale would likely require a significant and protracted commitment of personnel and materiel," analysts wrote.