Russia lost more tanks than it started the war with but its replacing them quickly

Russia has lost thousands of tanks since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine but understanding the country’s pre-war inventory and how it compares to what Moscow is fielding now is far more complicated than you think. 

On February 13th, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank, released its 65th annual ‘Military Balance’ report—and in the report, the think tank revealed Moscow’s staggering tank losses in Ukraine.

"Tank losses since the full-scale invasion began now likely top 3,000," explained Bastian Giegerich, the Director General of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), while speaking with reporters according to Newsweek. 

"To put that in perspective, Russia's battlefield tank losses are greater than the number it had when it launched its offensive in 2022,” Giegerich added. But how was this figure determined and what does it mean for Russian power?

The IISS noted in a blog post on its new report that figures on lost Russian tanks and its other military vehicles came from a variety of sources, which included the Pentagon and the open source intelligence trackers such as Oryx. 

Oryx is a Dutch intelligence project that has been tracking both Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses based on unique image and video evidence. As of February 18th, the group estimated Russia has lost 2,742 tanks in Ukraine.

The IISS noted that not all the images its analysts have examined equal a system being destroyed and added that its estimate of Russian tank losses in Ukraine also includes all of the tanks thought to be abandoned or damaged. 

Oryx’s loss figures also reflect how the IISS has made its estimation about tank losses, and Oryx has consistently noted in its estimates the number of Russian tanks that have been destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured. 

As of February 18th, 1,784 tanks had been destroyed since Putin launched his invasion while 150 had been damaged, 263 had been abandoned, and 540 had been captured. However, these figures may not be as worrying as you think. 

Russia has been able to replace its losses and Henry Boyd, the IISS’s Senior Fellow of Military Capability, explained to Reuters that Moscow was able to produce roughly 1,000 to 1,500 tanks over the previous year. But there was one problem. 

Many of the tanks replacing those lost in Ukraine have been of lesser quality according to Boyd. "Moscow has been able to trade quality for quantity... by pulling thousands of older tanks out of storage” Boyd explained. 

Russia may have been replacing its lost tanks at 90 per month in some instances and it has allowed Moscow to break even. Boyd also noted that only roughly 200 of Moscow’s replacement tanks were newly built. 

Despite most of Russia’s replacement tanks being older refurbished models, they still pose a significant threat to Ukraine and will allow the Kremlin to continue its invasion of Ukraine at its current level of intensity for years.  

Boyd told Reuters that Russia’s store inventory "could potentially sustain around three more years of heavy losses and replenish tanks from stocks, even if at lower-technical standard, irrespective of its ability to produce new equipment.” 

Ukraine may be able to keep destroying Russian tanks, but Moscow’s ability to replace its losses will eventually catch up as the war continues to grind both sides. At present, the IISS estimates Russia has 1,750 operational tanks of various models. 

"Western governments find themselves once again in a position where they must decide whether to furnish Kyiv with enough weapons to deliver a decisive blow, rather than merely enough not to lose," Giegerich said according to Reuters.