Russia suffered a shockingly high casualty rate over five days

Russia suffered a shockingly high casualty rate over a five-day period with troop losses reaching over one thousand in several days according to Ukraine. An aggressive push to take territory before U.S. help arrives is driving the losses. 

Newsweek reported on the recent daily casualty figures coming from Ukraine’s General Staff and noted that May 1st saw Moscow lose upwards of 1,120 personnel in a twenty-four period. This was the fifth consecutive day of very high losses. 

The previous four days also saw troop losses above one thousand soldiers according to updates from the Ukrainian General Staff. Moscow suffered 1,250 losses on April 30th, 1,096 on April 29th, and 1,124 on April 28th as well as 27th. 

Russian losses over the five days totaled 5,910 while it suffered a loss of 7,980 soldiers for the week, a number Newsweek’s Brenden Cole noted averaged out at 1,140 troops killed or wounded for the week. It was a truly shocking number. 

The high casualties being suffered by Russia didn’t slow on May 2nd. Ukraine’s General Staff reported in its daily update that the Kremlin lost another 1,030 troops in the fighting that had taken place over the previous twenty-four hours. 

Newsweek noted that Russian losses in Ukraine increased in the second half of April amid a push by Moscow in Donetsk Oblast, presumably to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible before American weapons and supplies begin arriving in Ukraine. 

There have been several occasions in the war where the daily Russian casualty count has reached over 1,000. Most recently in March 2024, Russia saw losses of over 1,000 troops nine times in what was a rather slow month following the capture of Avdiivka.

The UK Ministry of Defense reported in April 2024 that the average number of Russian casualties in March of the same year had reached 913 soldiers a day, which was down by 74 soldiers from February 2024. 

Russia’s average daily troop losses by year have risen significantly since Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine. Moscow suffered an average daily loss in 2022 of 400 and 693 in 2023. But that number has risen to 913 in the first quarter of 2024. 

According to the UK Defense Minister: “The increase reflects Russia's ongoing reliance on mass to sustain pressure on Ukrainian frontlines.” This is also likely why casualties in April have been so high as well. 

February 2024 also saw Russian casualties pushed over 1,000 thirteen times compared to only four times in January. The most recent estimates of the Kremlin’s total casualties in the war as of May 2nd was 470,870 according to the Ukrainian General Staff. 

Russian casualty numbers quoted by Ukraine's General Staff may seem high, but there are reliable third-party estimations that suggest Kyiv’s totals may not be too far from the mark—especially the numbers being estimated by the United Kingdom.

On April 27th, the UK Minister of State and Minister for the Armed Forces Leo Docherty revealed that Russia has likely suffered a total of 450,000 casualties since the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022 according to a quote from the UK Defence Journal. 

“We estimate that approximately 450,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded, and tens of thousands more have already deserted since the start of the conflict,” Docherty said in response to a question from Shadow Secretary of State for Defence John Healey. 

“The number of personnel killed serving in Russian private military companies (PMCs) is not clear,” Docherty added. However, the original estimate is quite close to the figure reported by the Ukrainian General Staff on May 2nd. 

How the next few months will develop is not yet known. On April 22nd, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia was conducting air and information operations ahead of a possible offensive. If Russia does launch an offensive in 2024, its losses will only increase.