Russia wants Bakhmut before its Victory Day celebrations

Russia is committing even more troops to the bloody battle for Bakhmut ahead of the country’s annual Victory Day parade commemorating its victory over Nazi Germany. 

On May 9th, the Russian Federation celebrates its triumph over the fascist German forces that sought to destroy the Soviet Union but were instead pushed back and conquered themselves. 

However, this year's celebrations have been muted with Vladimir Putin canceling parades in several of Russia’s key border regions with Ukraine as well as in Crimea according to Politico’s Veronika Melkozerova.

With so much having gone wrong so far, Melkozerova reported that Moscow is looking for a win to sell to Russians on May 9th, and the best win to snatch would be that of Bakhmut. 

The battle for Bakhmut has been a grinding slog of attrition for more than nine months now and Russian forces have come very close to capturing the important Ukrainian town. 

Russia had long ago crossed the Bakhmutka River and made its way into the urban wasteland of the city’s western bank. But the final push to capture the city has been costly. 

On May 1st, White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that Russia had lost 100,000 troops in five months of fighting in Bakhmut and in other key areas of Ukraine. 

Kirby also said that Moscow had lost 20,000 soldiers killed in that time period, half of which they believe came from the vaunted mercenaries of Russia’s Wagner Group.

"Russia's attempt at a winter offensive in the Donbas largely through Bakhmut has failed," Kirby said. “It’s really stunning, these numbers," he added according to Reuters.’

On April 10th, Denis Pushilin—Moscow’s regional leader in Donetsk—claimed that Russian forces had captured 75% of the city and that its total capitulation was close. 

"I can say with absolute certainty that more than 75% of the city is under the control of our units," Pushilin told the state-run Rossiya-24 TV channel according to Reuters. 

Nearly one month later, however, Ukraine is still holding on despite Moscow's best efforts to finally take possession of the prize that has been the focus of their efforts throughout the majority of the war. 

Ukrainian units still hold several key positions in the western portion of Bakhmut according to Melkozerova, as well as the all-too-important supply routes into the city that have allowed Ukraine to fight on. 

“Although Russians are throwing more soldiers at their positions, Kyiv’s forces say they are holding the line and have even managed to take back some territory,” Melkozerova wrote, which begs the question: can the Ukrainians hold the town until after May 9th?

The Commander of Ukrainian Land Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi recently wrote in a post on Telegram that the situation was complicated and both sides were making ground in Bakhmut.

Syrskyi said that despite their heavy losses, Russian paratroopers and Wagner Group mercenaries were rushing into the battle but were also failing to take control of the city according to Politico. 

“In some parts of the city, the enemy was counterattacked by our units and left some positions,” Syrskyi said on May 1st according to a Politico translation of his statement. 

Putin may not get his May 9th prize but it does look like Bakhmut will eventually fall under the complete control of Russian forces, how long it will take is still unknown but it won’t be as big of a deal now that Ukraine has had months to prepare its defense lines.