Some Russians are worrying about an absolutely massive Ukrainian drone attack

Military bloggers in Russia are worried about the possibility of a major kamikaze drone attack allegedly being planned to coincide with Ukraine’s much-anticipated spring offensive according to a new report from Forbes. 

“Russian social media on the Ukraine war is buzzing with fear of an imminent attack by thousands of small kamikaze drones that could overwhelm their front lines,” wrote Forbes David Hambling, who pointed to one military blogger that laid out the theory. 

A military blogger who goes by the handle Russian Engineer wrote that according to his sources, Ukrainian forces were planning a massive swarm attack based on comments made by one of Volodymyr Zelensky’s former top political advisors, Alexei Arestovich. 

Arestovich spoke about the possibility of a mass drone attack in January, one month before he resigned over false comments he made about the Dnipro Apartment Airstrike. 

“Of course, his job is to broadcast horror stories,” wrote Russian Engineer, before going on to present his case for why Ukraine could very well be planning a mass drone attack. 

There are two key pieces that point towards the possibility of Ukraine preparing a large kamikaze drone attack that could be used to support its spring offensive. 

In late January, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine publicly announced the creation of the world’s first unmanned aerial vehicle shock companies, an order which came directly from Ukraine’s Commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhny. 

In partnership with Ukraine’s special forces, the Ministry of Digital Transformation created a Coordination Headquarters in order to implement the project for future use. 

“This is necessary in order to implement a number of key reforms and scale up the production of UAVs in order to provide them to the Defense Forces of Ukraine,” The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine wrote in their announcement. 

The servicemen manning Ukraine’s new special drone shock companies had already been selected by the time they were announced and were outfitted with drones, ammunition, a Starlink connection, “and other necessary equipment to overcome the enemy.”

Since the creation of special drone shock companies, now called the Ukraine's Army of Drones, Ukrainian authorities have allegedly amassed tens of thousands of drones according to Russian Engineer.

“Recently, it has become known that…  buyers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have bought up almost the entire market of fpv components in China, according to indirect estimates, by 50-100 thousand units,” Russian Engineer wrote. 

“They have already trained more than a thousand operators of these models,” the Russian military blogger added, noting that the machines were being turned into kamikaze weapons to be used on Russian forces “before the offensive.”

While we don't know the number of drones purchased by Ukraine's military due to operational security, Politico’s Veronika Melkozerova used numbers from Ukrainian government sources and charities to show the number of commercial drones amassed probably isn't as high as Russian Engineer quoted. 

In the three months since the launch of Ukraine’s Army of Drones project, the Ukrainian government said it has been able to acquire about 1400 drones while Serhiy Prytula Charitable Foundation's website noted it had purchased roughly 4100—a number that has now reached over 4500—and those aren't only drones coming into Ukraine from charities and activists. 

David Hambling noted that the North Atlantic Fellas Organization, an internet parody meme group of NATO, crowdfunded the purchase of 240 drones while one activist named Serhii Sternenko funded the purchase of 500 drones at a cost of $350 dollars apiece. 

Hambling wrote that it could be possible for Ukrainian officials to refit commercial racing drones, whose powerful engines would make them effective weapons of war, though doing so would make the drones more cumbersome on the battlefield. 

“The powerful motors mean that, at some loss of speed and endurance, an [first person view] FPV drone can carry a heavy payload, including an anti-tank RPG warhead or RKG-3 grenade, though it may need extra batteries,” Hambling wrote.  

“While this arrangement may not look airworthy, FPV drones are lethally effective weapons,” Hambling added.

On March 24th, The Economist reported on the use of commercial racing drones in Ukraine, saying that they had become a viable and cheap alternative to expensive American-made Switchblade 300 loitering drones that were in short supply. 

Black Raven was pointed to as one Ukrainian company that showed it was possible to turn $700 dollars worth of commercially available parts into a capable kamikaze drone, a far cry from the $75,000 it costs for just one American Switchblade 300. 

If the predicted attack turns out to prove true, it could provide a devastating blow to Russian forces just as Ukraine’s spring offensive kicks off. Unfortunately, operational security will prevent us from knowing if the story is true until it actually happens, though all indications point to massed attacking becoming a major new front in Ukraine's war to liberate its territory.